Challenges Arising from War the Way Forward

WRITER- Dr Ashwani Mahajan, National Co-Convenor

NEW DELHI: Due to an unprecedented situation in the Middle East—stemming from a conflict between the US and Israel on one side, and Iran on the other—the flames of war have engulfed nations across the entire region. This has not only impacted the prices and supply of gas, oil, fertilizers, and other essential commodities, but has also provided an opportunity for unscrupulous elements to exploit the situation; anticipating future shortages, who are currently hoarding these materials. While government has ensured the people to not allow the oil and gas prices to increase, driven by widespread panic, people are queuing up for LPG and petroleum products. This is evident from the fact that the average daily booking of LPG cylinders—which typically ranged between 5.5 to 6 million—has suddenly surged to between 7.5 and 8.8 million per day; similarly, there has been a significant spike in the demand for petrol. In Uttar Pradesh alone, the demand for petrol witnessed a 46 percent increase in a single day. Although the country possesses adequate stocks of petrol, diesel, and gas—and supplies continue to flow steadily thanks to the government's diplomatic efforts, despite repeated assurances from the administration—panic-buying is nevertheless creating artificial shortages, thereby fueling growing anxiety among the public.

It is understandable that the situation remains highly uncertain, and it is unclear when the conflict will come to an end. While India is currently able to ensure supplies of petroleum products via the Strait of Hormuz, any further escalation of the war could severely disrupt these supply lines. Rising tensions in the Middle East could drive oil prices even higher, thereby fueling global inflation and increasing the risk of a recession in the United States. Furthermore, factors such as currency depreciation, a widening Current Account Deficit, and mounting pressure on foreign exchange reserves are collectively rendering the future outlook particularly precarious for emerging economies. Prime Minister Narendra Modi has also drawn attention to all these challenges arising from the ongoing conflict.

The emerging global situation, a state of war—has exposed the vulnerabilities inherent in an excessive reliance on external forces for critical economic and strategic requirements. Just as COVID-19 made us realize that any global upheaval can create problems for a nation—causing disruptions in production and supply chains—and bring economic activity to a standstill, the current war-like environment is no different.

However, it is also true that India possesses the capacity, resilience, and resources to successfully navigate these global uncertainties. What is required is simply a collective commitment toward self-reliance, economic nationalism, and responsible public conduct.

The Swadeshi Jagran Manch reiterates its commitment to strengthening the foundations of an 'Atmanirbhar Bharat' (Self-Reliant India) and calls upon all stakeholders—the government, industry, and citizens—to work together in this direction. It is our firm conviction that while global interdependence is indeed a reality, no global upheaval should be allowed to disrupt the smooth functioning of our economy. This can only be achieved by attaining a higher degree of self-reliance. Although we currently depend on imported crude oil for up to 88 percent of our needs and on gas for approximately 50 percent—a dependency that continues to rise—we must systematically reduce this reliance by harnessing alternative sources of energy. In recent times, our country has been gradually transitioning toward electric vehicles, solar power, wind energy, nuclear power, and other renewable energy sources. However, the transition toward electric vehicles has been slower compared to other nations; self-reliance in solar energy stands at less than 20 percent, whereas self-reliance in wind energy equipment has reached approximately 70 to 80 percent; meanwhile, nuclear energy accounts for a mere 2.5 to 3 percent of India's total electricity generation. Our government is already well on its way along the path of self-reliance; Given the fact that—barring hydroelectric power generation—our reliance on fossil fuels such as coal, oil, and gas renders us particularly vulnerable to global shocks, there is an urgent need to accelerate the pace of building self-reliance in renewable energy sources, such as solar, wind, and nuclear power.

In light of this situation, the Swadeshi Jagran Manch appeals to all patriotic citizens also to:

1.Rely solely on verified and official sources of information.
2.  Refrain from forwarding unverified messages and rumors.
3. Uphold national unity and act responsibly in the broader interest of the nation.
4. In the coming days, save as much petrol, gas, and diesel as much possible, and use alternative energy sources. This collective effort of citizens can help nation sail this difficult situation.