Where Does India Stand in Drone Warfare?

A Wake -Up Call

The ongoing Russia-Ukraine conflict has underscored the transformative role of drone warfare in modern military strategy. Both nations have deployed over 50,000 drones monthly, ranging from $500 commercial models to $5 million combat systems, demonstrating how unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs) are redefining battlefield dynamics. This rapid evolution serves as a critical wake-up call for India’s defence strategists, urging them to rethink operational doctrines and technological advancements in drone warfare.

So, now what are the critical lessons for our defence strategists to mull over? Russia -Ukraine war has shown us that drones are taking the centre stage in reshaping battlefield dynamics as both nations have deployed unprecedented numbers of unmanned system, ranging from improvised commercial models to advanced AI-powered platforms.

China’s Role and the Proxy Threat

India must now assess the implications of drone warfare in its own strategic environment. Where does China stand in this gambit? Our defence strategists, therefore, now must analyse these rapid ongoing critical innovations and their implications on India for future conflicts. While many strategic thinkers may argue saying that China will never get into any direct military confrontation with India as China has more to lose than to gain due to geopolitical risks, because a military confrontation with India will only open doors for a long-awaited opportunity for the foreign powers to intervene. But then, there is no way to prevent Beijing from supplying drones to Pakistan as also to the insurgent groups in the Northeast. Such a scenario would significantly escalate asymmetric threats along India's borders, making it imperative for Indian defence planners to stay ahead of emerging technological challenges. Recent reports have indicated a surge in drone incursions along the India–Pakistan border in the year 2022. The BSF had reported over 268 drone sightings, a significant increase from previous years. These drones are often used for smuggling weapons and narcotics, posing a multifaceted threat to national security. Use of drones have also been seen in Manipur.

The Rise of Drone Superpowers: Turkey and Iran

Interestingly, the Russia-Ukraine conflict has also highlighted the significant rising influence of Turkey and Iran in drone warfare. Both nations have played pivotal roles, supporting opposing sides with advanced UAV technology. A comparative analysis of their capabilities offers valuable insights for India’s own drone strategy.

Turkey has emerged as a prominent player in the UAV technology sector with the Bayraktar TB2 drone being a game changer for Ukraine. The TB2 has been instrumental in providing precision air-strike capabilities to Ukraine, enhancing its operational effectiveness against Russian forces. This drone has not only enhanced Ukraine’s operational effectiveness against Russian forces but has also bolstered Turkey’s diplomatic and military influence globally.

Iran has supplied Russia with drones such as the Mohajer and Shahed series which have been utilized in various combat scenarios within Ukraine. Despite being perceived as less sophisticated, particularly in terms of intelligence, surveillance, reconnaissance (ISR) and electronic warfare capabilities, Iranian drones have become an increasingly important weapon for Russia, used to strike a range of civilian and military targets. Iran’s model of exporting drones primarily to strategic allies showcases another dimension of UAV warfare that India must analyse.

India’s Drone Warfare Capabilities: Bridging the Gap

The rapid advancements in drone technology, therefore, highlight the need for India to enhance its indigenous UAV capabilities. Historically, India procured UAVs from Israel in the late 1990s, marking its initial foray into drone warfare. However, the current landscape demands a shift towards self-reliance and advanced UAV development. The Indian military has to, essentially, narrow the gap with the People's Liberation Army in drone warfare.

While it is encouraging to see that we have made notable progress with platforms like the DRDO Rustom series, designed for long-endurance surveillance and reconnaissance, but the real momentum will be driven by private sector innovations under the Make in India initiative. The Indian Army has also placed an order for nearly 2,000 drones to enhance surveillance along the India-China border and support forward posts with supply transport. The Indian Army is now seen progressively enhancing its UAV capabilities, focusing on surveillance, reconnaissance and target acquisition. Start-ups and established players have slowly begun to play a crucial role in equipping the armed forces with UAVs. A significant example is Odisha-based IG Drones which has secured a major contract with the Indian Army to supply indigenously developed VTOL (Vertical Take-Off and Landing) and FPV (First-Person View) drones. Such private sector contributions underscore the need for greater collaboration between the government and industry.

The Indian military is increasingly focusing on swarm drone technology, which can deceive enemy radars and force the launch of expensive interceptor missiles. This strategic innovation will be crucial in countering superior adversaries. These moves, therefore, underscore India's commitment to integrating advanced drone technology into its military operations.

Rethinking Air Dominance: The Future of Warfare

The Russia-Ukraine conflict has shattered conventional notions of air superiority. The reliance on costly stealth jets is being challenged by affordable drones capable of neutralizing advanced aircraft. The threat posed by cheap drones is now forcing militaries to rethink on how to defend oneself.  Ukraine’s layered approach on combining electronic warfare (EW) jammers, anti-drone guns like the Epirus Leonidas and laser systems provides a blueprint for cost-effective air defence model that India must consider adopting.

Artificial intelligence (AI) is further revolutionizing drone warfare. The integration of AI into drone operations has also been a game-changer. Ukrainian startups have been at the forefront of developing AI driven UAVs with enhanced navigation, targeting and autonomous decision-making capabilities. India, thus, must actively integrate AI into its UAV programs to stay ahead in this technological race.

 India’s Strategic Partnerships and Procurement Challenges

The dynamic nature of drone warfare in Russia -Ukraine conflict has, therefore, demonstrated the need for continuous adaptation. While Turkey and Iran have demonstrated their drone capabilities through direct involvement in the said conflict, the use of drones by the Houthis in the Red Sea, especially against the US fleet, has also exposed the vulnerabilities even of the most advanced naval forces. The US Navy has been forced to use missiles costing $2-3 million to intercept incoming drones that cost only a few thousand dollars. This asymmetric warfare, therefore, underscores the urgent need for India to invest in effective counter-drone technologies and cost-efficient defence mechanisms.

Continued investment in indigenous development and strategic procurement will be crucial for India to enhance its drone warfare capabilities and achieve greater self-reliance in this domain. The budget allocation towards indigenous development, therefore, has to be significantly increased or else our vision of turning into a global power will remain a dream only.

While India has taken steps towards enhancing its drone capabilities, procurement challenges do remain a critical issue. In October 2024, India and the US has signed a $3.5 billion deal for 31 MQ-9B High Altitude Long Endurance (HALE) drones. However, the persisting delay in the supply of critical components like the F404 and F414 aircraft engines, a deal signed with US earlier, raises concern about timely deliveries and implementation. Similarly, the indigenous Kaveri Engine project has remained stalled for decades due to lack of funding,  underscoring the need for serious government intervention in R&D.

Beyond Defence: A Whole-of-Government Approach

Drones also have multiple uses beyond military applications, including agriculture, logistics, disaster response and surveillance. Given this, their development should not be solely confined to the defence budget. Other ministries, such as agriculture, home affairs and civil aviation must also channel funds to accelerate UAV research and development, thereby, ensuring broader applications and cost efficiencies.

Conclusion: A Race India Cannot Afford to Lose

The Russia-Ukraine conflict has provided an unfiltered glimpse into the future of warfare, where drones dominate the battlespace. While China, Turkey and Iran are rapidly advancing their UAV programs, India is still catching up. The lesson from Russia -Ukraine conflict and the use of drones by the Houthis in the Red Sea, especially against the US fleet, is clear that drone warfare is no longer an auxiliary tool but a frontline necessity.

As we aspire to be a global military power, we need to act decisively prioritizing indigenous drone development, leveraging AI and addressing procurement inefficiencies. We must also look for inventing small pocket size jammers for tackling drones which target individuals. Such jammers can be carried by individual soldiers. The next war will not be fought with just soldiers and tanks only, but with algorithms and drones. The question, therefore is - Will India be ready sooner than later??

By Lt Gen Abhay Krishna, retd

(Lt Gen Abhay Krishna (retd), PVSM, UYSM, AVSM, SM(G), VSM, – is a former Army Commander of South Western, Eastern and Central Army Commands.)

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