UPCOMING ASSEMBLY ELECTIONS : THE ROAD TO POWER

Rajasthan (Land of Kings) is the largest state of India in terms of area, with a population of about seven crores. It is in the northwestern side of the country, comprising of most of the wide and inhospitable Thar Desert, sharing international border with Pakistan and surrounded by the states of Punjab, Haryana, UP, MP and Gujarat. It is famous for Dilwara Jain Temples, hill station Mount Abu, three national tiger reserves, Keoladev National Park of Bharatpur and numerous forts. There is unicameral legislative assembly with 200 seats, 25 Lok Sabha and 10 Rajya Sabha seats in the state.

Rajasthan has seen 15 assembly elections with the history of mostly not letting the incumbent party to return to power. The next election will be held on 25th November 2023. The incumbent govt. of Congress is headed by Ashok Gahlot. In this analysis, we will examine the strengths and the weaknesses of Congress and BJP.

Strengths of the Congress – Three times Chief Minister Ashok Gahlot’s extensive outreach and mass connection make him a popular leader. He has launched a slew of welfare schemes, including Rs 25 lakh medical insurance plan, affordable cooking gas cylinders for Ujjwala scheme beneficiaries, free smart phone for women, restoration of old pension scheme. His slogan “Rahat Wali Sarkar” (relief providing govt.) has resonated with the public. The dissidence within the BJP’s state unit could work in favour of the Congress.

Weaknesses of the Congress – The ongoing infighting between Ashok Gahlot and Sachin Pilot has remained public throughout the tenure of this govt. The current truce may not be adequate to offset the damage. Sachin Pilot, the former Dy. Chief Minister, is a popular young leader in the state, his followers may not fully support Gahlot. The organizational structure of the party is not robust. The party has faced difficulties countering allegations of corruption, including exam paper leaks. Claims by a dismissed minister of possessing a ‘Red Diary’ containing evidence of financial irregularities will be a significant campaign point for the BJP. Poor law and order  particularly the crimes against women will go against this govt. Anti-incumbency poses a formidable challenge for the Congress.

Strengths of the BJP – It has a strong organizational structure extending down the booth level, supported by the RSS followers. The popularity of PM Modi, along with the developmental and welfare initiatives taken by the central govt. will be significant assets. The implementation of these initiatives without any discrimination has impressed the people. The party has initiated preparation for the elections well in advance. The abolition of triple talaq is expected to attract some Muslim women towards the BJP. The party’s appeal to Hindutva is expected to garner votes.

Weaknesses of the BJP – The internal differences in the BJP may not be as overt as those seen in the rival Congress but they still persist. It has seen three state unit presidents in the last five years. The state unit could have played better role as the opposition party. There is no clarity on who will lead the govt. if the party wins, with several names circulating as potential leaders, including Vasundhra Raje, Gajendra Singh Shekhawat, Ashwin Vaishnav, Diya Kumari and Om Birla. The party depends heavily on PM Modi.

It’s important to note that the strengths of one party can often be the weaknesses of the other and the vice versa.

To sum it up, factors such as poor law and order, corruption allegation, dissidence, Sachin Pilot and anti-incumbency are likely to influence the upcoming elections, with the BJP having a good chance of forming the next govt. in Rajasthan.

MADHYA PRADESH (MP)

Madhya Pradesh (Central Province), the second largest state by area after Rajasthan, is home to about eight crore people. It has a unicameral legislative assembly with 230 seats, as well as 29 Lok Sabha and 11 Rajya Sabha seats. As the name suggests, it is in central India sharing borders with UP, Rajasthan, Gujarat, Maharashtra and Chhattisgarh. It is renowned for its diverse flora and fauna with ten national parks, and it recently became home to Cheetahs at Kuno. The Khajuraho temple is famous for erotic sculptures and the state is home to two Jyotirlingas, Omkareshwar and MahaKaleshwar.

  The state is going to polls on 17th November 2023 to elect new legislative assembly, the present BJP govt. is led by Shivraj Singh Chauhan (known as Mama). The Congress won first seven elections in a row and the BJP formed its first govt. in 1990, headed by Sunder Lal Patwa. In 2003, the BJP returned to power with Uma Bharti as the Chief Minister. Shivraj Singh Chauhan once again became the CM in November 2005 and remained in power until 2018. The Congress came to power with Kamal Nath as CM. His govt. collapsed and Mama returned as CM in 2020.

Strengths of the BJP – The party heavily relies on PM Modi. The welfare and developmental schemes of the central govt. along with their effective implementation, will benefit the party. CM Shivraj Singh Chauhan, an OBC leader, is popular for his down to earth image and has been in power for about two decades and implementing many welfare schemes. Women voters are likely to be attracted by ‘Ladli Bahna Yogna’. The party has a very strong organizational setup that remains in election mode consistently, Home Minister Amit Shah has described the party unit as one of the best in the country. Shah, known as master strategist, has been overseeing the preparations. The party wants to leverage the mass appeal after some of its MPs and Union Ministers from the state being put in the fray along with Kailash Vijayvargiya. The renovation of Mahakaleshwar temple corridor and installation of the statue of Adi Shankaracharya have pleased the Hindu community.

Weaknesses of the BJP – Potential anti incumbency may be a challenge, as the saffron party has been in power for about two decades (excluding the period from 2018 to 2020). Many Congress leaders who came with Jyotiraditya Scindia have returned to Congress as well as the defection of some old leaders to the Congress may impact the party. The issues related to atrocities against Dalits and tribals along with corruption allegations will need to be addressed.

Strengths of the Congress – The morale of the party is high after victory in Karnataka. The party’s vote share reached 40% in 2018, compared to 30% in 2003. Kamal Nath is taking steps to counter BJP’s Hindutva agenda. The party is gaining support from several former BJP leaders and has been successful in raising the issues of unemployment, VYPAM recruitment scam and irregularities in Patwari exam. The party has promised the waiver of loans, the revival of old pension scheme and up to 100 units of free electricity.

Weaknesses of the Congress – The party lacks strong organizational structure. The absence of Jyotiraditya Scindia may impact its performance in Gwalior- Chambal region. If AAP, SP and AIMIM contest separately, the vote share of Congress will decrease.

The anti- incumbency factor against the BJP will make the contest tough and interesting with the BJP holding an edge.

CHHATTISGARH

Chhattisgarh was separated from Madhya Pradesh and became an independent state on 1st Nov 2000. Situated in central India it is surrounded by the states of UP, MP, Maharashtra, Jharkhand, Odissa, Telangana and Andhra Pradesh. Over 40% of the state is covered with forests. The nick name of the state is ‘Rice Bowl’ of India because of huge rice production. The state is rich in minerals, surplus in power and famous for its 36 forts, waterfalls, caves, lush green forests, ancient monuments and hill plateaus. The state is facing the problem of Naxalism. It has a unicameral legislative assembly of 90 seats, with 11 Lok Sabha and 5 Rajya Sabha seats. Presently there is Congress govt. led by Bhupesh Bhagel. The first CM of the state was Ajit Jogi from Congress. The elections of 2003, 2008, 2013 were won by the BJP with Raman Singh as the CM for 15 years. In 2018, the Congress formed the govt. led by Bhupesh Baghel.

Strengths of the Congress – CM Baghel is a popular OBC leader of the party and enjoys significant hold among rural voters. In the last five years, the party has strengthened its organizational set up down the booth level. Congress has implemented several welfare schemes, including Rajiv Gandhi Kisan Nyaya Yojna, Godhan Nyaya Yojna, unemployment allowance, procurement of millets and various forest produce at a support price.

Weaknesses of the Congress – The state Congress unit is struggling with factionalism.  CM Baghel has faced challenges from T S Singh Deo, who revolted multiple times. The party has failed to deliver scandal free govt., facing allegations of corruption in coal transportation, liquor trade and Public Service Commission recruitment in the state. There are some unfulfilled promises, including liquor ban and regularisation of contractual employees. AAP and Sarva Adivasi Samaj candidates may disturb the support base of the party.

Strengths of the BJP – The popularity of PM Modi is the strong point for the BJP in any election in the country. The welfare schemes by the central govt. may impress the voters.

Weaknesses of the BJP – The absence of the strong CM face to match Bhupesh Baghel. Three times CM Raman Singh is not seen active in the party. The BJP’s long used political issues pertaining to soft Hindutva, cows and Lord Ram have been snatched by the Congress.

The Congress appears to have an edge over the BJP in the upcoming elections to be held on 7th and 17th November 2023.

 

TELANGANA 

I t was separated from Andhra Pradesh on 2nd June 2014 and became an independent state, with a population of about four crores, situated in South India surrounded by the states of Andhra Pradesh, Karnataka, Maharashtra and Chhattisgarh. The state has a bicameral legislature with legislative council of 40 seats and legislative assembly of 119 seats along with seven Rajya Sabha and seventeen Lok Sabha seats. Telangana known as the gateway to Krishna and Godavari rivers in South India and famous for Warangal Fort, Golkonda Fort, Charminar, Ramoji Film City etc. Presently there is Bharat Rashtra Samit (BRS) govt, headed by K C Rao (KCR). He has been the CM of the state from the beginning.

   KCR is the founder and the leader of BRS. He is the sole driving force behind the Telangana movement for achieve statehood. His welfare programmee are aimed at reviving the rural economy and focussed on the development of all. In the 2018 elections, his party got 47% votes. He has created a strong organizational structure and the state has witnessed notable improvement in rural and urban infrastructure.

 Telangana is poised for a gripping three way contest with the ruling BRS, Congress and BJP vying for the supremacy in the elections to be held on 30th November 23. The BJP and the Congress rely heavily on the anti incumbency sentiments, corruption allegation against the ruling govt., including the daughter of KCR, and the family centric rule of BRS.

However, KCR’s popularity and the lack of prominent leader in BJP or the Congress to match his appeal may work in favour of BRS. The anti incumbency votes are likely to be divided between the Congress and the BJP making KCR’ return to power with possibility of fewer seats likely.

MIZORAM

M izoram (land of the Mizos) is the state of Northeast India with a population of about 11 lakhs, sharing international border with Bangladesh and Myanmar. It is surrounded by the states of Tripura, Assam and Manipur. Previously it was a part of Assam. About 95% of its population is of tribal origin (87% Christians) mostly depending on farming. It has a unicameral legislative assembly with 40 seats along with one seat each to Lok Sabha and Rajya Sabha. The state is famous for dense forests, hill stations, national parks etc. Presently there is govt. of the Mizo National Front (MNF) headed by Zoramthanga.

 The first assembly elections were held in 1987. The Congress and the MNF have formed govt. four times each. With the emergence of Zoram People’s Movement (ZPM) and its performance in 2018 elections, Mizoram is poised to witness tough contest between Congress, MNF and ZPM. CM Zoramthanga, a seasoned leader of former insurgent MNF is a popular leader of the state. He has gained credit for handling refugees, effectively distributed financial assistance under state’s Socio Economic Development Policy. He has already finalized candidates for all the 40 seats raising questions about its alliance with the BJP. He is also facing anti incumbency. The presence of the ZPM has transformed the state’s political landscape and may provide credible alternative to MNF and Congress.

There is going to be a tough triangular fight in the coming Mizoram elections.

In the states of Rajasthan, Madhya Pradesh, Chhattisgarh and Telangana, the election outcomes may be different if the newly formed opposition parties’ alliance does not remain united.

By Manoj Dubey
Principal (Retd.), Delhi Public Schools

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