Since the Iranian Revolution of 1979, the United States (U.S.) relations with Iran have remained contentious and vulnerable. American foreign policy failed under President Carter, the Islamic Revolution overthrew the U.S.-ally Shah regime, followed by the ‘hostage crisis’, in which the Iranians held American diplomats hostage for 444 days.
Over the past 47 years, the Iranian regime has spread its proxies in the Middle East to undermine American influence in the region. These groups, known as ‘Axis of Resistance’, include Hamas in Gaza, Houthis in Yemen and the Red Sea, and Hezbollah in Lebanon.
These regional nonstate actors advance Iran’s foreign policy objectives and undermine the foreign policy objectives of the U.S. and its regional allies in the Middle East.
To restrict Iran’s nuclear program, in 2015, the P5+1 reached an agreement, the ‘Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action’ (JCPOA). Under this deal, Iran agrees to a verification mechanism for its nuclear program and, in return, expects relief from international sanctions, allowing it to rejoin international trade relations. However, under President Donald Trump, the U.S. foreign policy has witnessed a significant reversal as compared to his predecessor Barack Obama. Trump has used diplomacy and coercion to contain Iran’s nuclear and ballistic missile program.
Maximum pressure strategy under Trump 1.0
In his first term, Trump has used a ‘maximum pressure’ strategy to contain the Iranian nuclear program. His strategic calculation was clear that Iran cannot have a nuclear weapon.
The Trump administration’s National Security Strategy (NSS) in 2017 was considerably more focused on the containment of Iran, which is a serious threat to America and its allies in the Middle East. It includes putting economic sanctions, oil export sanctions, military confrontation and supporting Israeli military action against Iranian-backed groups.
The International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) is responsible for monitoring Iran's JCPOA commitments. In 2018, the IAEA found that Iran is consistent in adhering to its commitment under the agency. However, American allies in the Middle East, Israel and Saudi Arabia, opposed this JCPOA agreement. Both views Iran as a serious security threat to its national interests in the region.
Trump has described the JCPOA agreement as temporary and a lack of control over Iran’s ballistic programme. In May 2018, Trump withdrew from the Obama administration’s Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action. In response to Trump's withdrawal from JCPOA, Iran breached its commitment to restricting its nuclear program.
Another major concern for the Trump administration in the Middle East, towards the end of his first term, was strengthening peace in the region. In order to build peace between Israel and several Arab countries in the region, Trump promoted the principle of the Abraham Accords. In 2020, Israel, Bahrain, the UAE, Morocco and Sudan agreed to establish full diplomatic relations under the Abraham Accords to advance their ties. However, the peace process initiated by Trump in his first term was seriously impacted by the Hamas attack on Israel.
On October 7, 2023, Israel was attacked by an Iranian proxy, Hamas. Later, Houthis of Yemen and Hezbollah in Lebanon also launched attacks from the Red Sea and the Israeli northern border with Lebanon. It was followed by the severe retaliation by the Israeli defence forces. Following the killing of the leaders of Hamas and Hezbollah, Iran launched hundreds of missiles against Israel. Iran, for the first time, launched direct missiles and drone attacks on Israel.
Since October 2023, the Israel Defence Forces (IDF) has continued to weaken the Iranian proxies in Lebanon, Syria and Yemen. It has launched a series of attacks on these Iranian proxies and preemptive imminent threats emanating from them. Iran has targeted the leadership and offensive capacity of Iranian proxies in the region.
Use of coercive force under Trump 2.0
Returning to office in 2025, Trump has insisted that the U.S. will not tolerate a nuclear-capable Iran in the Middle East. Tel Aviv also demanded that Iran cannot be allowed to develop nuclear weapons and ballistic missiles, which remain an existential threat to Israel.
Yet Trump has supported engaging with Iran diplomatically on the nuclear program issues in the beginning of his second term. The first talk began in April, led by Trump advisor Steve Witkoff and Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Aragchi. As both sides were unable to reach a concrete plan to permit the maintenance of Iranian enrichment capabilities, the lack of progress in the U.S.-Iran deal provided an opportunity to Israel to launch a preemptive strike on Iran’s nuclear program in June 2025.
Israel and Iran fired missiles at each other for several days, but the U.S. entered the conflict on the tenth day of the war. During the conflict, Israel has eliminated the military commanders and nuclear scientists of Iran. In order to find a quick solution, the U.S. used bunker buster bombs to completely obliterate the Iranian nuclear capacity. However, the intelligence report suggested that Iran’s nuclear capability was not obliterated completely as claimed by the U.S. president. All parties claimed victory after the 12-day war ended. Trump claimed it would bring peace to the Middle East. Israel and Iran have also made claims in their favour, but no strategic outcome has been achieved by the end of this conflict, which has neither brought peace nor ended military conflict between these countries.
The U.S. offensive action against Iran would have the power balance against Iran, and it has agreed to a ceasefire after a ’12-day war’. Iran has signalled that it would reassess its cooperation with the IAEA. However, both the U.S. and Iran mistrust each other due to their decades of hostilities towards each other.
Since the June 2025 ceasefire, the relationship between the U.S. and Iran has been defined by exchange of threats, military signalling and domestic unrest in Iran.In November 2025, the White House released NSS in 2025, which views Iran as a ‘chief destabilising force’ in the Middle East. It further explained that President Trump’s June 2025 ‘Operation Midnight Hammer’ has significantly degraded Iran’s nuclear program. This doctrine focused on the U.S. burden shifting from the Middle East. Trump believes that the conflict in the region has drained American resources, and now the U.S. would support its allies in the Middle East to bring peace to the region.
Trump’s normalisation of relations with Syria and the Board of Peace (BoP) plan for Gaza has convinced that the U.S. might support peace in the region and withdraw its military presence. However, the failure of negotiation with Iran has proved otherwise.
Protection of U.S. Allies in the Middle East
From a U.S. foreign policy perspective, Iran has remained a major threat to both Israel and the Gulf countries. The nuclear-capable Iran is not only a security threat to Israel but also to the Arab Gulf states. Another concern for the U.S. is the prevention of nuclear proliferation in the Middle East. Policy makers in America are aware that if Iran possesses a nuclear weapon, other countries will follow the pursuit of nuclear weapons. As Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman confirmed in September 2023 that his country would seek a nuclear arsenal if Iran developed one.
Although Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates (UAE) have spent the past few years building cordial relationships with Tehran, these diplomatic manoeuvres have not materialised. In retaliation for the U.S.-Israeli attack on Iran in February 2026, Iran has targeted the U.S. bases, energy infrastructure and civilian residents in the Gulf countries. These attacks have also inflamed old tensions between Saudi Arabia and Iran as regional rivals.
Domestic protest in Iran, a poor opportunity for the U.S.-Israel
Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu visited the U.S. on 29 December 2025 and pushed for the U.S. to take more strikes on Iran. At the same time, domestic protests began in Iran over the economic hardship faced by the people. The economic discontent among the Iranian merchant class quickly spread across a wider set of the population.
The Iranian regime used brutal force to curb the protests in the entire country. It also gives an opportunity to Trump to threaten the Iranian regime under the pretext of killing thousands of protesters by the Iranian regime. Trump threatened to take “very strong action” if any of the detained protestors are executed. The U.S. has stated a rapid military buildup near Iran, to make a deal over its nuclear and ballistic missile program. The world’s largest aircraft carrier, the USS Gerald R Ford and the Abraham Lincoln carrier strike group were positioned in the Arabian Sea. The U.S. has deployed the largest airpower in the region since the 2003 Iraq war to bring more pressure on the Iranian regime.
As the three rounds of nuclear talks between Iran and the U.S. failed, Trump was convinced that a diplomatic solution could not be reached. Ultimately, on February 28, 2026, the U.S. and Israel launched a coordinated military operation, ‘Epic Fury’, against Iran, which eliminated Iranian Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei and other top officials of the regime.
In response, Tehran has launched drone and missile strikes across the Middle East region, targeting Gulf countries that host U.S. military bases. Iran has used a horizontal escalation strategy to expand the scope of the war geographically, with the aim of exhausting the American-Israeli war machine. Iran is pressuring American allies in the Middle East to pressure Trump to end the war against Iran. An Iranian Revolutionary Guard (IRGC) spokesperson has threatened the neighbouring countries that it would wage an ‘energy war’ against them if the U.S.-Israel attacked their oil and gas infrastructure in Iran.
Iran continues to attack American allies in the Middle East. The U.S. security umbrella to the Arab Gulf countries and its reliability come into question in this conflict. No place in the Middle East is safe from Missile and drone attacks from Iran. It has also evaporated the safety myth of Gulf countries under American protection.
Gulf countries have still adopted a defensive posture after twelve days of the U.S.-Israel-Iran conflict. These countries continue to intercept missiles and drones from Iran. The attacks from Iran have targeted U.S. military bases, damaged energy infrastructure, and targeted residential buildings in the Gulf countries.
Following the Iranian closure of the Strait of Hormuz, major energy exports from the Gulf countries have stopped. Other economic activities, such as trade and tourism, are also affected by the war, and the war is hurting these countries economically. Global energy prices are soaring due to the current conflict in Iran. The recent U.S.-Israel-Iran conflict has indicated the limited capability of Iranian proxies in the Middle East region to counter the combined might of the U.S.-Israel, and the threat posed by these proxies was already dealt with by Israel after the October war in 2023.
Conclusion: Trump’s foreign policy approach toward the Middle East remains unclear. On the one hand, it discusses peacebuilding and burden shifting in the Middle East. On the other hand, the U.S. has joined the Israeli military campaign against Iran. Anne Applebaum, an American journalist and historian, advocated that Trump’s foreign policy towards Iran lacked a coherent strategy. Trump’s attack on Iran was without a plan for how to build a legitimate Iranian state.
The U.S. and Iran have remained adversaries for more than four decades. Since his first term as President, Trump has been keen to contain Iranian influence in the Middle East. Although Trump has given diplomacy the first opportunity in order to deal with Iran’s nuclear program, as the diplomatic deal could not be concluded, Trump has used coercive force to strike down Iran's capabilities in the Middle East.
After ‘12 days of war’ in June 2025, followed by the domestic unrest in Iran, Trump might have assumed that Iran was weak and it would soon concede the U.S. demands. However, in this current conflict, the Iranian regime is willing to fight a long war against the U.S. and Israel. Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Aragchi said that his country would keep fighting ‘as long as it takes’. The war has disrupted the global energy market, and now, energy-deficient countries across the globe are paying the price of war in Iran.
Vivek Mishra , Surya Prakash Noutiyal
(Dr Vivek Mishra is Deputy Director- Strategic Studies Program at ORF., and Surya Prakash Noutiyal is an intern at ORF)
(The content of this article reflects the views of writer and contributor, not necessarily those of the publisher and editor. All disputes are subject to the exclusive jurisdiction of competent courts and forums in Delhi/New Delhi only)
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