The stunning mandate for the alliance of the BJP, the NCP Ajit Pawar faction and Chief Minister Eknath Shinde’s Shiv Sena faction is more than about a comprehensive victory in the Maharashtra Assembly election.
It is also not just about a winning formula -- cash handouts, caste combinations and a religious appeal -- perfected by the BJP after its success in Haryana.
Instead, it is about realising that the electorate's mood can change dramatically in four to five months, from the Lok Sabha elections to the assembly polls.
The Mahayuti, powered by the BJP, showed that combining a united leadership's near-perfect strategy in wooing the electorate's different sections and understanding ground issues before the people could deliver a resounding victory.
Religious, regional, caste and class sentiments could be re-worked in its favour, decimating opponents and rendering legacies of established stalwarts like Sharad Pawar or Uddhav Thackeray irrelevant.
That is why Maharashtra's victory is about restoring the BJP’s dominance in the political dynamics that are taking shape following Prime Minister Narendra Modi's third term in office. It will undoubtedly help further stabilise his government in New Delhi.
The Maharashtra victory, close on the heels of that in Haryana, has shown that the BJP is very good at learning lessons from its setbacks.
Amit Shah and his team of election strategists or experienced leaders like Devendra Fadnavis and Eknath Shinde have shown that there is no magic winning formula other than solid groundwork and efficient selection of seats and candidates.
They showed the BJP's resilience. They effected a successful course correction in the state where, just a few months ago, the BJP had faced humiliation. From 28 Lok Sabha seats in 2019, the party managed to win only 13 seats this year. This reduced the total tally of the BJP. Along with the loss of seats in Uttar Pradesh, the contribution of the slide in Maharashtra was no less. After Uttar Pradesh, Maharashtra has the second highest number of MPs -- 48.
What worked for the BJP was a balance of welfare measures for women, tribals, and other sections by the state government, more attention to candidates, and grassroots-level campaigns undertaken by the RSS machinery.
The 'Ladki Behen' scheme, under which the state government made cash transfers of ₹ 1,500 per month to women, became a game changer. When the Opposition, which thrashed the scheme initially, promised to double the amount, the BJP pledged to increase it to ₹ 2,100 if voted to power.
The BJP worked to consolidate another significant factor: the Other Backward Castes. Its leaders conducted more than 300 meetings to reach out to the various caste groups among the OBCs. Under Modi's direction, they explained to them that their rights would be protected, and it was a fake narrative by the Congress that the constitution would be changed to take away their reservation. The Maratha community, upset over the delay in implementing a quota, was also assured that the BJP would do its best.
Agitating onion farmers of north Maharashtra and cotton and soybean farmers of Vidarbha were assured of relief in the coming season once the Mahayuti returned to power. A loan waiver promise brought angry farmers -- who didn't vote for the party in the Lok Sabha election -- back to the BJP fold.
Though the BJP had no plan to disturb the arrangement with Shinde and Ajit Pawar, the party hinted it was not averse to keeping the question of Chief Ministership open. This helped the BJP in Vidarbha, where Fadnavis' popularity has remained unchallenged.
The BJP pacified many rebel leaders and got them to withdraw from the contest.
The Maha Vikas Agahadi (MVA) suffered and couldn't do the same. It also became complacent, showing it lacked strategy and cohesion. It showed it was more of a loosely strung opposition front, even if the issues on the ground were in its favour at one time. From a position of strength, the MVA came apart in just four to five months. Insiders in the MVA could not but wonder why their alliance lost an election that it could have won easily.
The Mahayuti secured 234 of the total 288 assembly seats, marking the BJP's best-ever performance in the state. The BJP got 132 seats, nearly a majority in the 288-strong Assembly. The tally of the Mahayuti was almost five times that of the MVA, which was limited to 50 seats for all of its partners combined. The Shiv Sena (54 seats) and the Nationalist Congress Party (41 seats) contributed significantly to the Mahayuti's victory.
On the other hand, the MVA, which had performed impressively in the Lok Sabha elections, was severely beaten. Its total tally of 48 was less than one-fourth of the NDA's numbers. The alliance of the Congress, the Shiv Sena Uddhav Thackeray faction and Sharad Pawar’s NCP saw a sharp decline across the State.
Why would Modi feel his standing is restored?
The BJP's loss of the parliamentary majority in the 2024 Lok Sabha elections was a significant personal setback for Modi. After leading a government with an impressive majority in Parliament for a decade, Modi was forced to change.
He had to revive the National Democratic Alliance (NDA), securing the support of the Telugu Desam Party and Nitish Kumar's Janata Dal (United).
The BJP also used Modi's brand sparingly in the Haryana campaign, where the BJP returned to power in the face of anti-incumbency --by relying on more local faces.
Similarly, though Modi's campaign was significant in Maharashtra, it was not a "carpet bombing."
Modi's rallies were optimised for the desired effect, along with that of Uttar Pradesh Chief Minister Yogi Adityanath. It was left to Fadnavis, Shinde and Ajit Pawar to maximise their electioneering in their areas.
At a rally to mark the victory, Modi showed a sense of satisfaction over the BJP overcoming a big challenge. He said, "This is the third consecutive time that any alliance led by BJP has won in Maharashtra. This is the third time the BJP has emerged as the single-largest party in Maharashtra. This is historic. This shows the governance model of the BJP. The BJP alone has got more seats than MVA."
He added, "Maharashtra has become the sixth state that has given mandate to the BJP three times continuously. We will continue working like this. I especially want to thank and congratulate the people of Maharashtra, who have chosen a stable government for the third time."
As a gesture of thanks, Shiv Sena chief Eknath Shinde even redefined the term 'CM'. "For me, the full form of CM is not Chief Minister; it's Common Man," he said at a press briefing, which Fadnavis and Ajit Pawar also attended. He declared, "Our government was the common man's government. I am thankful to PM Modi for his incredible support. Women, children and farmers were the centre point for us. We want to convert the common man into 'Superman'."
Deep disappointment and shock for Uddhav and Sharad Pawar
The deep disappointment among the opposition leaders was writ large. It saw them return to their plank of expressing concern over the "huge margin" of victory for the NDA, especially considering its poor performance in the Lok Sabha elections in the state. They also raised questions about the credibility of the electronic voting machines (EVM) and the role of the Election Commission.
Sanjay Raut of Uddhav Thackeray's Sena and Congress leader Pawan Khera made identical remarks. "The Lok Sabha election was fought in the name of Modi ji in Maharashtra. BJP lost it. The same state gives the same BJP 132 out of 148 seats within 4-5 months. What kind of strike rate is this? Is this strike rate possible? Democracy is our concern. Electoral transparency is our concern. Can the BJP reverse anti-incumbency? We complained continuously. No answer was given. Whether we win or lose, we will continue questioning the election process. You cannot shut us up by showing Jharkhand's results. To date, apart from the poetry, we have not received any concrete answer from the Election Commission."
Raut even blamed Y V Chandrachud, the Chief Justice of India who retired a few days ago, suggesting he delayed a verdict on his Sena's claims over the undivided Sena's symbol (bow and arrow) which was allotted to the Eknath Shinde Sena. Only Sharad Pawar showed some sagacity by refusing to be drawn into the allegations about EVMs.
The results are a huge setback for Uddhav Thackeray and Sharad Pawar. This election was supposed to decide who represents the real Shiv Sena and National Congress Party. Both leaders had described this election as a fight for prestige. However, their defeat was shocking on a personal level.
Uddhav Thackeray said, "I cannot believe Maharashtra, which listened to me as head of family during COVID, will behave with me this way." He cannot fathom the reasons for his party's deep slide and the emergence of his bete noire, Eknath Shinde.
Sharad Pawar, too, would have realised that he erred in underestimating the strength of Ajit Pawar and his faction of leaders and workers to bounce back. Unlike the Lok Sabha polls, Sharad Pawar made it more of a personal battle with his nephew to safeguard his legacy
Of course, the Congress got a message on its face. Its supreme leader, Rahul Gandhi, failed to impress its voters again. His pet themes took centre stage but did not resonate with the voters
Rahul Gandhi and Uddhav Thackeray over-focused their campaign on the Adani project for Dharavi. They did not realise this was an assembly election involving 288 seats in a big state. They failed to recognise that voters in the state were more tuned to Modi's grand plans for Maharashtra.
Opposition gets relief from Jharkhand
There was definite relief for the Opposition INDIA bloc in Jharkhand, where the JMM-led alliance secured a comfortable majority, winning 56 seats in the 81-member Assembly, improving upon its 2019 tally. The NDA, which ran on an "anti-infiltrator" campaign, won only 24 seats in the state. Under Chief Minister Hemant Soren, the Jharkhand Mukti Morcha (JMM) became the best choice for the tribal electorate. The alliance led by JMM, with the coalition partners, the Congress, the Rashtriya Janata Dal and the CPI(ML)-Liberation, earned voters' confidence. Their impact extended beyond seats reserved for the Scheduled Tribes (ST). The "sympathy factor" caused by the arrest and subsequent release on bail of Hemant Soren played a significant role. The JMM's core voters did not buy into the allegations of corruption and the BJP’s narrative about the government. Soren showed that the JMM could build upon its success in the 2024 Lok Sabha elections. The JMM-led alliance won nine of the 14 parliamentary constituencies in the State. The BJP, too, had an alliance with the All Jharkhand Students Union Party (AJSUP) and had inducted former Chief Minister Champai Soren from his parent JMM. These efforts did not prevent the JMM’s sway over tribal voters. Champai Soren’s influence was limited to his constituency, and the AJSUP won only one of the ten seats it contested. The results did show that the JMM and the INDIA bloc were indeed successful in countering the campaign led by the BJP on the issue of “infiltration of Bangladeshi immigrants” into the Santhal Pargana region of northeast Jharkhand. The strategy did little to break the tribal-Muslim base of the opposition.
There was a considerable gap between the NDA and INDIA bloc numbers. The JMM-led front got 56, while the BJP's alliance won 22 seats. Of course, regarding vote share, the BJP, which contested 68 seats, got 33.2%. This was only less than six per cent behind the JMM-led front’s combined share of 39.02%. It had candidates in 75 seats. The BJP vote share remained almost the same as in 2019 (33.37%).
As the BJP co-in-charge, Assam Chief Minister Himanta Biswa Sarma pushed a narrative of alleged Bangladeshi infiltration in the Santhal Parganas area of the state. Other BJP leaders amplified the narrative, giving it the jargon of “love and land jihad” by claiming that these “infiltrators” were marrying tribal women to take their land. So the BJP campaigned to “protect roti, maati, beti (food, land and daughters)” of the tribals.
Despite this approach, the BJP did not even open its account in Santhal Parganas. However, its narrative appears to have worked somewhat in the North Chotanagpur region – primarily urban – with the BJP and its allies winning 14 of the 25 seats. The BJP’s primary inability was to highlight corruption successfully.
Like in Maharashtra, women voters turned out in more significant numbers than the men voting in Jharkhand. Nearly 91.16 lakh women cast their votes compared to the male voters, who were 85.64 lakh. In terms of voting percentage, 70.46% of the women voters cast their ballot compared to 65% of the men voters. In absolute numbers compared to the turnout in the Lok Sabha polls, 7.3 lakhs more women voted against 1.8 lakhs more male voters. The Hemant Soren government’s success lay in wooing women with its Maiyya Samman Yojana, which provides Rs 1,000 per month to women aged 21-49. Soren worked on the scheme from jail. His wife, Kalpana Murmu Soren, became the face of the Yojana.
The distance between the BJP and the tribal voters remained unresolved. The memories of the Raghubar Das-led BJP government of 2014 and 2019 to try change tenancy laws remained high on the voters' mind.
By-elections
In the by-polls to the Lok Sabha, the BJP won Maharashtra's Nanded seat, and Congress's Priyanka Gandhi Vadra claimed a landslide victory in Wayanad by over 4 lakh votes in her electoral debut. As for the by-polls to fill 48 assembly vacancies, the NDA gained in Assam, Bihar, and Rajasthan, while Congress managed to win all three seats in Karnataka. As expected, the Trinamool Congress swept West Bengal, and the Samajwadi Party faced a significant setback in Uttar Pradesh.
Chief Minister Yogi Adityanath’s slogan of “Batenge toh katenge (divided we perish)” prevailed over the ‘Pichda, Dalit, Alpasankhyak’ or PDA pitch of the SP. The BJP secured six out of nine seats in Uttar Pradesh.
The BJP retained Ghaziabad Sadar, Khair (reserved), Phulpur, and Majhawan, wrested Kundarki and Katehari from the SP, and its ally Rashtriya Lok Dal (RLD) preserved Meerapur after joining the National Democratic Alliance. The SP retained the family stronghold of Karhal and Sisamau. Its victory margin in both the seats was down considerably.
The defeat of the SP nominee in Kundarki was shocking for Akhilesh Yadav. His candidate Md. Rizwan, who demanded a repoll, lost his deposit in a seat with a 65% Muslim population and 57.7% voting, the highest of the nine constituencies.
Yogi called the results the electorate’s “stamp on the double-engine government’s commitment to providing security and development.” Akhilesh Yadav was left dumbstruck. He could only accuse the BJP government of making “election synonymous with corruption” by "misusing" administrative machinery to "rig" the polls in its favour.
Yogi appears to have consolidated his position five months after the BJP’s below-par performance in the Lok Sabha polls in UP. As the unchallenged icon of Hindutva, Yogi remained a strong pan-India campaigner for the BJP. Yogi held 37 public meetings in 13 days in his State, Maharashtra, and Jharkhand.
What was also very striking was that the Congress workers remained absent from the ground. Rahul Gandhi didn’t share the stage with Akhilesh Yadav after the Congress decided not to contest the polls, upset with the SP's offer of only two seats. Did Akhilesh Yadav fail to recognise the Congress' role in attracting the Muslim and Dalit votes towards the Indian bloc during the Lok Sabha election?
By Shekhar Iyer
(The content of this article reflects the views of writers and contributors, not necessarily those of the publisher and editor. All disputes are subject to the exclusive jurisdiction of competent courts and forums in Delhi/New Delhi only)
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