Come February every odd year, India looks forward to Bangalore skies buzzing with myriad aerial platforms of various sizes, shapes and nationalities at the Aero India Show. It makes every Indian proud to have an air show of its own although in terms of attendance, it still cannot compete with the air shows art Dubai, Zhuhai, Berlin, Farnborough or Paris. But then they are long standing shows; indeed, the Paris Air Show’s first edition took place in 1909 when heavier-than-flying itself was barely six years old.
India hosted its first international air show in 1996 as the Aero India Show, a defence and aerospace event organised by the Defence Exhibition Organisation of the Ministry of Defence (MoD). The first edition was an associative enterprise between MoD, Defence Research & Development Organisation (DRDO), the Indian Air Force (IAF), the Department of Space and the Ministry of Civil Aviation (MoCA). Subsequent editions were held in 1998, 2001, 2003, 2005, 2007, 2009, 2011, 2013, 2015, 2017, 2019, 2021 and 2023, all at Air Force Station, Yelahanka in Bangalore. The first two editions were held at end of the years 1996 and 1998 but subsequent ones were shifted to February as that was considered a better month of the year to hold such shows. That is the reason why, after the first two editions which were held in even numbered years, there was a change to odd numbered years.
It is now the largest show in Asia and serves as a networking and exhibiting platform for governments and aerospace industries across the world in both, the military and the civilian domains, although the defence-military aerospace is predominant. Starting rather modestly, the Aero India Show has grown considerably with passing editions (except a Covid-driven slump in 2021). The 2023 Show was host to dignitaries from 98 countries, 809 exhibitors, signing of over 25 partnerships including 201 MoUs and technology transfer of Rs 75,000 crores. The Defence Ministry expects these statistics to be bettered this year in the 15th edition which is slated for February 10 to February 14, 2025 and has as its theme ‘The Runway To A Billion Opportunities’.
Atmanirbharta and Aero India Show
The Aero India Show has always been about showcasing Indian aerospace and defence industry. Make In India and Atmanirbhar are constant refrains of the present government and also of the Aero India Show editions. The 2015 edition which was the first after Modi became PM was inaugurated by him and ‘Make in India’, first mentioned by him in September 2014, was made the theme for the Show. Later, in May 2020 when Covid 19 was at its peak, Modi proclaimed Atmanirbhar Bharat Abhiyan as an economic package from the government designed to provide an economic stimulus to a stifled economy. For the 2021 edition of the Show, Modi personally announced ‘Atmanirbhar’ as the theme and, just before the Show took off, he tweeted that, “India offers unlimited potential in defence and aerospace. Aero India is a wonderful platform for collaborations in these areas…….” The 15th edition’s theme ‘The Runway To A Billion Opportunities’ is also pregnant with the hopes of collaborations in the aerospace and defence sectors.
Aero Show and Indian Air Power
Aerospace and defence both impinge on air power, the ability to project power through the medium of the air (and space) and the instrument that is tasked with the projection is a country’s air force. Indigenous aircraft, thus, should be one of our top priorities in Atmanirbhar and the Show is an optimistic attempt at collaboration.
The need for more fighter aircraft for the India Air Force (IAF) was anticipated in the 1980s and, with indigenous aircraft as an objective, Defence Research & Development Organisation (DRDO) was tasked in 1983 to produce a Light Combat Aircraft (LCA), later dubbed Tejas or ‘splendour’. However, its history has not been very cheering. The IAF currently has 2 squadrons of the LCA Tejas Mk1 which is not really an aircraft ready for frontline operations but rather just a testbed for the Mk1A which is a slight improvement over the Mk1. The IAF was to get 40 Mk1s but has not yet received all 40 although the Mk1s count as two (albeit non-effective) squadrons out of the IAF’s 31. In June 2021, the IAF ordered 73 Mk1As and 10 Mk1 trainers (which had not been developed alongside the Mk1). At the time of writing this, the first Tejas Mk1A is yet to be delivered to the IAF (Mk1As are expected to be inducted into No 3 Squadron at Air Force Station, Nal, which is waiting since February 2024. After the first one is delivered, HAL is expected to deliver 16 (of the 83 mentioned above) every year for the next five years but, given HAL’s track record, this time frame may not be adhered to.
In any case, even the Mk1A is barely a 4th generation aircraft; it is only a slight improvement over the Mk1. However, the Tejas Mk2, which is expected to be a 4½ generation Medium Weight Fighter (MWF) would be a jump from the Mk1A. In the case of the Mk2, the Tejas nomenclature is misleading inasmuch as the Tejas Mk1 and Mk1A are ‘light’ fighters while the Mk2 is a ‘medium weight’ aircraft. It has a Maximum Take Off Weight (MTOW) of 17.5 tons compared to Mk1A’s 13.5 tons, a more powerful engine (although still a General Electric (GE) engine and not an indigenous one), and a larger payload of 6.5 tons compared to a little over 4 tons for Mk1A. The first Mk2 prototype was expected in December 2023 but now 2027 looks more likely with a first test flight in 2028 or 2029.
The Advanced Medium Combat Aircraft (AMCA) is planned to be a twin engine, 5th generation aircraft in contrast to the Tejas Mk1/Mk1A LCA and the Tejas Mk2 MWF, both of which are single engine, 4th to 4½th generation fighters. AMCA was originally envisaged as a Medium Combat Aircraft (MCA) with an MTOW of 15 tons but subsequently its nomenclature was changed to AMCA and its MTOW upped significantly to 25 tons (with the Tejas Mk2 sliding into the 15 ton space). A power plant for it remains an uncertainty as India has produced none so far. The AMCA may fly with a GE engine (like the Tejas). An indigenous AESA radar is not yet a certainty, and the stealth technologies and some other minor but critical elements needed as essential criteria for fifth generation are not also available indigenously. The CAS has reportedly called for foreign collaboration for development of niche technologies for the AMCA and has expressed concern over timely delivery of AMCA. The IAF plans to procure seven squadrons of AMCA, the first two squadrons in Mark1 configuration, equipped with a GE engine, and the remaining five squadrons in Mk2 configuration with an indigenous engine. However, the AMCA is not going to assuage the shortfall problem of the IAF in a hurry. The Cabinet Committee on Security (CCS) gave its go ahead for AMCA in March last year. Reportedly DRDO Chief Dr Samir V Kamat is on record as stating that the first AMCA prototype is anticipated to roll out seven years after receiving CCS sanction, with potential induction into IAF approximately ten years later. As a result, the IAF is likely to commence the induction of the AMCA after another decade at the earliest.
In December last year, a deal was signed with Hindustan Aeronautics Limited (HAL) for 12 indigenous Su-30MKIs; however these will take time to materialize as about one third of its components (including power plant) come from Russia which is preoccupied with the Russia-Ukraine war.
To summarise, an indigenous 4½th or 5th generation aircraft that meets IAF’s needs is unlikely to be inducted into the IAF before 2035.
Current Shortfall of IAF
Meanwhile, the IAF’s current fighter squadron strength is 30 against a sanctioned strength of 42 squadrons. These include two squadrons of Rafale (the last aircraft arrived in December 2022), 12 of Su-30 MKI, two of MiG-21, three each of MiG-29 and Mirage 2000, six of Jaguar and two of Tejas (which are of limited operational capability and lack a trainer). A fortnight after the Chinese brandishing their 6th generation fighters, the Chief of Air Staff (CAS), addressing the 21st Subroto Mukherjee Seminar in New Delhi expressed his serious concern over the delayed delivery of Tejas, the Indian indigenous fighter.
Within this year all the MiG 21 squadrons would have been sent out of service due to their old age and deteriorating accident record. The Jagaurs, MiG-29s and Mirage 2000s are already operating on extended lifecycles. The Jaguar fleet would be phased out between now and 2032. By then, the MiG-29 and Mirage 2000 squadrons, whose induction began in the 1980s, would start reaching the end of their useful days and all would be out of service by 2040.
The MiG-29s were inducted in 1986 and had a life cycle of 25 years which was later extended during the mid-2000s to 40 years. This extension will expire starting 2025 and a second life extension programme for the MiG-29 fleet is being contemplated in view of the critical shortfall.
The Mirage 2000s are not being given another extension but as they have been retired by the French Air and Space Force, India has contracted to acquire 24 phased out Mirage 2000s from France for the purpose of cannibalizing spares and components, thus giving the ageing IAF fleet a sort of extension. The last of these would be out of service by 2040.
HAL has been tasked to produce 12 Su30 MKIs but their production will take considerable time.
To summarise, the current squadron strength is inadequate to the IAF’s envisaged roles and tasks. The fact that it is going to reduce further is alarming.
Concluding Remarks
India has been assessed by Stockholm International Peace Research Institute (SIPRI), an independent resource on global security, to be the world’s largest arms importer. Government efforts over the years have increased India’s defence exports impressively; they touched Rs 21,083 crore in the FY 2023-24, a growth of 32.5% over the last fiscal year. However, more needs to be done in big ticket exports and fighters remain a weak area currently.
The indigenous fighter programme is not going to get any transfer technology from the extremely possessive fighter aircraft industry worldwide. This is especially so in the case of aeroengines which remains India’s weak area despite India having a Gas Turbine Research Establishment (GTRE) in existence since 1959. The current and future versions of the Tejas and the AMCA in the near future will remain dependent on outright purchase of aeroengines while an indigenous engine suitable for indigenous fighters will come about only if India is able to worm out a deal with an OEM for transfer of technology. Needless to say, such a deal may not come with significant strings attached.
The Chief of Air Staff (CAS) is on record as having stated that IAF requires five to six new squadrons of 4½th generation aircraft to meet its immediate requirements. That need can only be met in a meaningful timeframe through procurement of 4½th aircraft from a foreign vendor under the Multi Role Fighter Aircraft (MRFA) requirement for 114 aircraft that has been on the anvil since 2018, after the previous deal for 126 Medium Multi Role Combat Aircraft (MMRCA) quest was scrapped in 2015 after having reached a final winner out of the foreign contenders.
It would be interesting to see which all of the MRFA contenders (Boeing F-18 and F-15, Saab Gripen, Eurofighter Typhoon, Lockheed Martin F-21, MiG 35, Su 35 and Rafale) show up at the Aero Show. Of these Rafale is flying with the IAF and would definitely be there while Saab has already positioned a replica of its Gripen E fighter at the Aerospace Park in Devanahalli.
While Atmanirbhar has its own appeal, the fighter shortage described above and the current status of our indigenous fighter programmes indicate a need to consummate the MRFA deal. One can only hope that the MRFA deal goes through soon. Although it is not likely to be signed during the Aero Show, one hopes that the Show might prove to be a catalyst in MRFA decision making.
By Gp. Capt. AK Sachdev (Retd)
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