Predicting Kerala Assembly elections is a psephologist’s nightmare. The state’s politics remain deeply complex and sharply polarized between two dominant coalitions—the CPI(M)-led Left Democratic Front (LDF) and the Congress-led United Democratic Front (UDF). Although the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) has maintained a visible presence, it has traditionally struggled to emerge as a decisive force, despite a steady rise in its vote share.
Compared to many other states, the people of Kerala have been known to hold firm ideological positions. The outcome of elections is often determined by a relatively small percentage of floating voters. Even a minor swing of 2–3% in vote share can decisively influence which coalition comes to power.
For decades, Kerala’s elections followed a see-saw pattern, with power alternating between the two major coalitions every five years. That long-standing trend was broken in 2021, when incumbent Chief Minister Pinarayi Vijayan led the Left Democratic Front to a resounding victory, scripting history by securing consecutive terms in office. This triumph came just two years after the LDF had nearly drawn a blank in the general elections, as UDF candidates swept the State with huge margins riding on public anger over the Sabarimala controversy. Yet, the government’s perceived efficiency in managing the Covid-19 crisis helped the LDF regain public confidence and romp home at the hustings.
Even now, no seasoned psephologist is willing to stick his neck out and predict a clear victory for the UDF. While there is perceptible anti-incumbency in the state, fuelled by corruption charges, allegations of nepotism, administrative ineptitude, and internal feuds within the CPI(M), the electoral outcome remains far from certain.
One of the clearest signs of strong anti-incumbency in Kerala was reflected in the recently concluded local body elections, where the UDF registered a spectacular victory. In a historic breakthrough, the BJP wrested control of the prestigious Thiruvananthapuram Corporation from the Left Front for the first time in 45 years. This was a major setback for the CPI(M).
The ten years of LDF rule has pushed the state into severe economic mess. Presently, Kerala ranks among the states with the highest unemployment, particularly in the category of educated youth, where joblessness remains well above the national average. With virtually no industrial base, largely a consequence of militant trade unionism, Kerala continues to witness a steady outflow of educated youth to other states and abroad. The State, once proud of its high-quality educational institutions, is now witnessing a steady decline in the standard of education. One of the major reasons for this trend is the over-politicization and government interference in educational institutions. The State’s unemployment rate remains a concern: currently at around 4.3%, down from 7.2% in 2023–24. Inflation adds another layer of strain. Kerala ranks among the top three states in India with the highest inflation, and as of January 2026, its Consumer Price Index stood at 3.67%, well above the national average of 2.75%. Traditionally, the LDF has enjoyed an upper hand in local body elections, a strength rooted in its well-organised grassroots machinery and deep networks of cadre-based mobilisation. But last time around, the party dogged by a slew of corruption charges could not perform well. After holding sway over the Thiruvananthapuram Corporation for more than four decades, the Left Democratic Front finally ceded ground to the BJP.
BJP’s rise as a major contender
Although the contest has always been between the UDF and LDF, the political balance has begun to tilt in unexpected ways with the emergence of the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) as a major player. It is interesting to note that both the coalitions are part of the INDI Alliance at national level, they are bitter enemies at home. Each bloc accuses the other of being in secret alliance with the saffron party. The BJP, meanwhile, dismisses the UDF-LDF contest as a staged drama, insisting that while they spar in Kerala, they cooperate elsewhere in the country. If the current election results in a hung Assembly and the INDI Alliance takes shape in Kerala, then by force of circumstance the political ‘untouchable’ could emerge as the principal opposition group.
For decades, the party functioned largely as a vote-cutter, shaping the outcome indirectly by influencing which of the two fronts would ultimately win. But the BJP alleges that whenever it came close to securing a victory in Kerala, the two coalitions would resort to cross-voting to block its rise.
The dynamics began to shift after 2014, when Narendra Modi assumed power at the Centre. The BJP gradually gained traction in Kerala, culminating in a breakthrough during the 2019 general election when it secured the Thrissur Lok Sabha seat with a comfortable margin, marking the party’s first-ever parliamentary victory in the state.
The BJP has long been perceived as a party rooted in the upper caste Nair community. Since 2014, however, it has made a consistent and concerted effort to win over the numerically strong Ezhava community, traditionally the backbone of the Communist parties. In pursuit of this strategy, the BJP forged an alliance with the Bharath Dharma Jana Sena (BDJS), aiming to consolidate backward caste votes and expand the NDA’s footprint in Kerala’s historically bipolar polity. While the alliance did not yield immediate dividends, the NDA has witnessed a steady rise in support from backward communities. Added to this, the LDF’s policies often seen as anti Hindu, coupled with the UDF’s brand of appeasement politics, have nudged sections of backward Hindu communities closer to the BJP.
With the State’s demographic profile not naturally favourable to the BJP, the party sought to broaden its appeal by wooing the Christian community. It positioned itself as a force capable of addressing the concerns of a large section of Christians over the rising threat of Islamic radicalism. This outreach gained traction in a context where the political clout of Christians was seen to be waning, even as the political influence of Muslims was on the rise.
Rising global and domestic realities have compelled sections of the Christian community to view the BJP more favourably. Several prominent Christian leaders, including P. C. George, former Kerala Congress leader, and Shone George, are now contesting on BJP tickets. In addition, the party has forged an alliance with Twenty20, the political outfit promoted by industrialist Sabu Jacob, which enjoys considerable influence in certain pockets.
The entry of Rajeev Chandrasekhar as president of the State unit has helped the BJP broaden its appeal among sections that once viewed the party with suspicion. To its credit, the BJP has been the only political force in Kerala to consistently foreground development, a narrative that has resonated strongly with the youth and drawn them closer to its fold. The performance of the Central government and the image of Prime Minister Narendra Modi have further bolstered the party’s standing, enabling it to significantly expand its footprint in the State. Opinion polls suggest that the BJP is poised to secure a notable number of seats in the upcoming election. While some surveys predict double digit gains and others point to a handful of constituencies, one conclusion is inescapable: whatever the precise outcome, Kerala’s political landscape has been irreversibly transformed.
G Sreedathan
(The content of this article reflects the views of writer and contributor, not necessarily those of the publisher and editor. All disputes are subject to the exclusive jurisdiction of competent courts and forums in Delhi/New Delhi only)
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