With the Congress in power for the past five years, Rajasthan has experienced significant political unrest. The power battle between Chief Minister Ashok Gehlot and his former deputy Sachin Pilot was a major factor in the state's unfavourable media attention. Their constant infighting escalated to such frightening proportions that it appeared as though the administration was on the verge of disintegrating on numerous occasions. Somehow, it managed to endure the storm each time.
For the November 25 Rajasthan Assembly elections, both the BJP and the Congress have released their lists of candidates. Interestingly, the BJP has decided not to project any state leadership and is instead depending on the popularity of Prime Minister Narendra Modi, while the Congress has designated senior politician and Chief Minister Ashok Gehlot as the party's face in this election.
Despite its CMs being dismissed three times, Rajasthan, the largest state by area, has only had three Chief Ministers in the last 33 years and six in the 50s (not including one who held the position for just 15 days); it has also produced hung assemblies but the largest party has always managed a majority. and it has never experienced a government collapse. Despite the sporadic appearance of other political parties, it has only ever been ruled by the Congress and BJP (Janata was in power when BJP was a part of it). The Ashok Gehlot government, led by Congress, seeks to buck this long-standing trend this year. As a result, it has attempted to promote the idea that voters will restore it to power rather than overthrow the Congress in the next 2023 election.
The 10 welfare measures that Gehlot's government proposed after the Congress party won the 2018 Assembly election have been sparked by the campaign. It asserts that these commitments have been met and that the seven guarantees included in the top-up plan will encourage Rajasthanis to support keeping its rival party out of office for an additional five years.
The Griha Lakshmi Yojana, which provides women-headed families with an annual payment of Rs 10,000, is one of the schemes and guarantees. Other programmes include giving cooking gas cylinders to over one crore families for Rs 500, providing tablets and laptops to students attending government colleges, and providing medical insurance coverage up to Rs 15 lakh per family in the event of a natural disaster.
While data from Niti Aayog indicates that Rajasthan has likewise established an industry-friendly climate that has elevated its economic growth rate to 11.04 per cent —second only to Andhra Pradesh—few would contest the necessity of welfarist measures. Gehlot, however, faces off against Prime Minister Narendra Modi, the front-runner for the BJP, who is also making every effort to win over voters. For both the Congress and the BJP, Rajasthan is vital. In addition, the BJP won all 25 of the state's parliamentary seats in the Lok Sabha elections in 2014 and 2019. The BJP is once again riding high on the well-known aspect of the Prime Minister's popularity.
Vasundhra Raje: A force to reckon With
Though the BJP hasn't yet announced a candidate for the Rajasthan Assembly election, Vasundhara Raje is still a formidable opponent and has clout within the organisation. Numerous supporters of Vasundhara Raje have been nominated by the BJP, particularly on its second list. This action implies that Vasundhara Raje might have strong backing in her quest for the Chief Minister's position should the BJP win. Vasundhara Raje recently attacked Congress politician Priyanka Gandhi Vadra for her promise to provide Rs 10,000 to each woman heading a home during a speech at the opening of an electoral office for one of her supporters. She drew comparisons between the Congress government led by Ashok Gehlot and the policies and conduct of the BJP government during her tenure.
The previous BJP government, led by Vasundhara Raje, had put in place a number of protection measures for women, including the Abhay Command Centre, women's patrol squads, women's police stations, and the Nirbhaya Helpline. She has, however, made clear that these plans remained dormant during the current Congress administration. Vasundhara Raje has been aggressively addressing local issues among the populace in the lead-up to the Assembly elections, such as infrastructure development and water ratios. In addition, she pledged to finish the Ring Road in the event that the BJP won the election.
Raje continues to show up strongly in polls despite not being formally projected as the chief ministerial face of the BJP in Rajasthan. Her approval rating is the highest of the Rajasthan BJP officials surveyed, at 22 per cent, according to a recent C-Voter Poll. This approval rating is more than three times higher than that of Rajyavardhan Rathore (7 per cent) and more than twice that of Union Minister Gajendra Singh Shekhawat (10 per cent). Vasundhara Raje, who has a lot of power in the Jhalawar area, will run from her traditional constituency of Jhalrapatan.
Her power cuts across Rajasthan's caste structure and might unite the Jat, Gujjar, and Rajput factions, among others, in support of the Bharatiya Janata Party. Because of her heritage and the fact that her son is married to a Gujjar, she appeals to both Rajput and Jat voters. A common way to characterise this broad appeal is "Rajputon ki beti, Jaton ki bahu aur Gujjaron ki samdhan (daughter of the Rajputs, daughter-in-law of Jats and in-law of Gujjars)."
Ashok Gehlot: Trying to rewrite history
With the preparations for the elections, the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) sees an opening. It's the traditional anti-incumbency scenario paired with the ongoing internal conflict in Congress. But despite everything going on, one thing is certain: Ashok Gehlot is still in power in the state of the desert. Now more than ever, the party cannot afford to lose his popularity. In order to support this, the Congress must demonstrate its welfare programmes and direct money transfer initiatives that Gehlot's administration started, moving beyond simple rhetoric.
In Rajasthani politics, the pattern for the past thirty years has been to vote out the incumbent in every Assembly election. However, Congress Chief Minister Ashok Gehlot—who has personally been defeated twice—says that this time will be different. It is undeniable that people in both urban and rural areas of Rajasthan have nothing but praise for Gehlot. The statement that there isn't a clear "wave" in favour of any party may not be the most charitable. Maybe this is the reason Gehlot and his party feel they have to celebrate their victories with activities like the 12-day Congress Guarantee Yatra, which began on November 12 in Jaipur. 140 of the 200 Assembly constituencies are anticipated to be covered by the yatra, which is also intended to incite support for the ruling party.
Gehlot, however, faces off against Prime Minister Narendra Modi, the front-runner for the BJP, who is also making every effort to win over voters. For example, Modi opened the 1,350-kilometer Delhi-Dausa section of the Delhi-Mumbai motorway at Dausa, the home base of Congress leader Sachin Pilot. This expressway's first phase links Dausa with Sohna in Haryana. The Gujjar community makes about seven percent of the electorate in Rajasthan and is the largest community in the Dausa region. The fact that Pilot was not appointed chief minister during the 2018 Assembly election has, in fact, caused the community to drift away from the Congress party. In that election, the BJP fielded nine Gujjar candidates, all of whom lost, while the Congress fielded twelve, seven of whom won. This time, though, the Gujjar's seem to be more interested in the BJP.
To combat this undercurrent, Pilot is canvassing the Tonk constituency door-to-door, much to the delight of his BJP opponent, Ajit Singh Mehta, who previously won this seat in 2013 and is hoping to return. The Gujjars who live nearby lament Pilot's accessibility issues and the lack of progress in this area. Nevertheless, the 65,000 Muslim votes in Tonk seem to be solidly in support of the Congress party.
In an attempt to gain as many votes as possible from every region from which a prospective chief minister contests, the BJP has adopted a collective leadership strategy. Because just a few leaders are popular throughout the entire state, this tactic can backfire. The chief minister candidate will be chosen by the party's parliamentary board, according to BJP spokespeople. Gehlot has manipulated these inconsistencies. "If you need a bridge or a school, will you ask for it from your chief minister—or Modi?" he has posed to the crowd at multiple rallies.
Yet even as the election draws to a close, Gehlot still has to deal with challenging matters. His continuous leaks of exam papers have turned a significant portion of the young against him. The BJP has taken advantage of the increase in crimes against women. In retaliation, the Congress has advocated for its initiatives to guarantee that no complainant is turned away and to improve public access to police stations.
In the final few days of the campaign, the struggle for Rajasthan will intensify. The desert state usually votes out the current administration, but Gehlot is unwilling to give up his political legacy or the position he has skillfully carved out for himself. He has started what he calls Mission 156, which refers to the small number of seats he hopes to keep the BJP in.
Modi_ The Magic Wand
Despite all the shortcomings of BJP in the state, BJP has turned the tide in its favour. Everywhere BJP has caught the fancy of the people. Reason: only one : Modi and Shah-Modi magic is going to bring BJP back to power in Rajasthan. “This election has only one hero, and he does not reside in Jaipur but rather in Delhi. “We are passionate supporters of Prime Minister Narendra Modi and will vote for him in the assembly elections, and will make sure he wins all 25 Lok Sabha seats once more, regardless of what happens in the battle for assembly seats and whichever party prevails,” said a person in Rajasthan. The Bharatiya Janata Party, which took the biggest risk in the Assembly elections by running under the prime minister's guidance rather than a local face, is benefiting from Modi’s popularity in Rajasthan. The largest risk taken by the BJP central leadership is the absence of two-time chief minister Vasundhara Raje, who has dominated Rajasthani politics for twenty years. The BJP’s state unit should undergo a generational change, according to a sizable portion of the party in both Delhi and Jaipur, but the process might not be easy. The central leadership acknowledges Raje's significance and has included a sizable portion of her supporters in the list of candidates that was released following the initial rebellion.
You know why Congress will get defeated in Rajasthan. It will be its own undoing. In terms of cybercrime, inflation index, rape and other crimes against women, appeasement, and corruption, the state comes in first. Rajasthan has expensive petrol and diesel prices in addition to high electricity rates. In Rajasthan, the Gehlot administration has gone beyond all bounds in terms of vote-bank politics. When Kanhaiya Lal was killed in broad daylight in Udaipur, hardly a word was said by anyone. Rajasthan is become a riot-prone state thanks to them. The PFI members staged a protest in Kota, Rajasthan, despite being banned by the government.
All the parties especially Congress, who blame BJP to be a “Communal Force” are themselves Communal. They have all been playing “religion card” to garner votes, making illogical statements to appease minorities, pushing legal provisions against the spirit of the constitution of India to benefit some minorities unduly and so on. The Congress administration is supporting hate crimes against Hindus and their culture on a regular basis. Gehlot demonstrated the double standard by excluding the hijab despite his pledge to outlaw the practise of ghoongat from the state. Congress talks about how impoverished and marginalised areas are developing, yet it says nothing when the “Jihadi’s” commit atrocities on them. In a nutshell, it is the Modi magic that will again bring BJP to power everywhere and it is insane to watch how people adore him in fact worship him, despite being in government for so many years. Elections are unpredictable but Modi has a magic wand in his hand.
Who will win Rajasthan now, in our opinion? On social media, the matter is fiercely contested. Congress leader Rahul Gandhi has now declared that the Congress will win the whole state of Rajasthan, despite acknowledging in September that the election would be extremely tight. According to opinion polls, there will be a close race with the BJP winning, and some even predict a photo finish. It's said history does not repeat itself, but it does rhyme.
By NILABH KRISHNA
(The content of this article reflects the views of writers and contributors, not necessarily those of the publisher and editor. All disputes are subject to the exclusive jurisdiction of competent courts and forums in Delhi/New Delhi only)
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