The 2024 parliamentary elections are considered as historic by many for many reasons and one such reason being the likely victory of BJP in the southern states. The lotus bloom in their states is discounted by the southern regional leaders as their very political culture based on the regional pride is anathema to the philosophy of the saffron party. However BJP top leadership is so confident, sometimes bordered on over confidence, of its lotus harvest this time even in Kerala, the hitherto barren state for that party, and that being expressed by no less than chief campaigner PM Modi in many meetings in that state. The well-known political strategist Prashant Kishore comment that entire south as anti-BJP is not acceptable as that party was either in the ruling or the prime opposition party in Karnataka for the last 30 odd years. Though the strategist is not ready endorse the blooming confidence of BJP, he is ready to see some surprising results in the south in favour of that party. The south based political observers say the perpetual campaign mode of BJP is what going to fructify in the coming elections across the country and south is no more terra incognita for saffron surge.
The reports emanating from the southern states say the climate is favourable for BJP to breach the regional political forts of south. They already succeeded, though not directly, in eliminating one regional party, BRS, in Telangana. The party which led the agitation for the formation of separate state is now struggling to find candidates to contest in 2024 Lok Sabha elections. Thus making it largely a straight fight with Congress. Wherever BJP was in straight contest with Congress its wining chance are better and Telangana may not be different. Since BJP won 4 Lok Sabha seats in 2019 elections facing both BRS and Congress this time it is hoping to improve its numbers in Telangana.
Andhra Pradesh is the only state in the south which is having simultaneous elections for assembly and Lok Sabha elections and ruling YSRCP headed by Jaganmohana Reddy (Jagan) is confident of coming back to power basing on the freebies he offered during the last four years. This situation is cleverly used by the BJP to its advantage. Chandrababu Naidu of TDP was compelled to join NDA and concede 6 Lok Sabha seats to the BJP in Andhra Pradesh where saffron party never had 1% vote share. For his political survival Chandrababu Naidu has bear the burden of getting the BJP candidates to win, as any loss of BJP in the allotted seats means that many seats are a gift his political rival and current CM Jaganmohan Reddy. Thus the BJP chose the piggy ride on Naidu and the cine star turned politician Pawan Kalyan and his JSP to have successful lotus harvest.
Tamil Nadu which kept the national parties at bay ever since Dravid parties came to power in 1967 has thrown up a surprising political situation where BJP became the main challenger for the DMK hegemony. Tamils who were swayed by the Hindu-Hindi rhetoric for the last five decades are now ready to welcome BJP into their state. All those stanch Hindus and the communities which were excluded by the DMK in power sharing have now joined hands with BJP. One man, the former IPS officer turned politician and presently state BJP chief, Annamalai is credited in laying the field for the lotus bloom. Under his leadership BJP won four assembly seats in 2021 elections and this time the party is confident of winning a minimum of four Lok Sabha seats. This is made possible as BJP could attract Tamil Manila Congress, founded by Moopanar and present Congress leader P. Chidambaram, and PMK, another community based pasty with influence in the coastal areas. By the time results are out many observers see the decimation of once powerful, MGR-Jayalalithaa led, AIADMK. With Congress lost its will to make a political come back in Tamil Nadu and its leaders remained satisfied to play a secondary role to DMK, the bloom of BJP is made possible. As BJP state chief Annamalai states 25% vote share in 2024 elections and to be in power in the state after 2026 assembly elections may not be that difficult if the same tempo is maintained by BJP in Tamil land.
Perhaps Kerala is the toughest state for BJP and Left parties take pride in keeping BJP away from their God’s own Country. The high literacy and better social indices achieved by Kerala is stated by Left leaders as the reason for rational thinking of voters and not accepting ‘communal’ BJP, though the the Left runs blatantly run Minority communal politics under the garb of secularism. That pseudo secular nature of both Left and Congress politics is evident in their competitive issuance of secular certification for Muslim league and how Hindu voters are divided on the caste lines. This 75 year old pseudo secular narrative is on the verge of breaching. The Hindu consciousness was successfully aroused trough the judicial verdict on Sabarimala and the Left government handling of temples which is being cashed by BJP besides the grass root work of RSS cadre. Though not many seats are given to BJP by the political observes but none of them are ruling out the rising political graph of saffron party in red Kerala. The Left fort of Kerala may not be breached in 2024 but certainly BJP is going to be a game in 2026 assembly elections.
Karnataka is boasted as the southern gate way by BJP and since the last 30 years that party remained relevant in state politics with consistent 33% vote share. In the last Lok Sabha elections it conceded only one seat to Congress and one seat to JDS. Now it could drive JDS into NDA fold. Out of the 25 Lok Sabha seats of Karnataka, the BJP is confident of winning at least 25 seats despite Congress scoring a impressive victory in the recent assembly elections. The figures may wary from survey to survey but BJP winning seats in Karnataka is never in doubt.
The target of 370 seats for BJP may or may not be achieved but target of having at least one MP from all the 29 states is going to be a possibility, with predicted southern lotus blooming.
By Dr. Duggaraju Srinivasa Rao
(The content of this article reflects the views of writers and contributors, not necessarily those of the publisher and editor. All disputes are subject to the exclusive jurisdiction of competent courts and forums in Delhi/New Delhi only)
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