By Simran Sodhi
Today India has the world’s largest youth population. It excites many observers who feel that the young people are the potential engines to a fast growing economy and a stronger India. Yet, there are those who worry that despite a growing economy, there are just not enough jobs for young people, especially women.
According to the figures available with the International Labor Organization (ILO), around 66 per cent of the total population (more than 808 million) is below the age of 35 in India, which makes the country home to the world’s youngest citizens. This year India is also expected to overtake China and become the world’s most populous nation. How India deals with this easy availability of labor, or is unable to optimize the demographic dividend, will be the big challenge in the coming years. The end results, in either scenario, are quite stark.
To avail the benefits of this demographic dividend, India will firstly need to put in place an education system that imparts valuable skills to the youth who can then be easily employed. Many experts believe that by 2030-35 India is likely to emerge as the world’s third largest economy. A youth that is educated and skilled will then be an asset in this growth story. However, if the education system does not produce graduates who can be employed, the country could be in trouble as that could easily give rise to social tensions. It is no secret that the country’s education system is in desperate need of an upgrade. Even colleges that impart professional degrees courses like engineering, for instance, are not producing candidates that are employable. According to UNICEF 2019 reports, at least 47% of Indian youth are not on track to have the education and skills necessary for employment in 2030. Those figures in themselves should worry us all.
India can learn a lot from the likes of Singapore, Taiwan and South Korea who reaped the benefits of a demographic dividend to achieve great economic growth. But this was made possible only with the application of policies that helped shape education, health and skills. The problem in India, which is quite apparent to even a casual observer, is inadequate health services for an ever growing population, poor education system and even worse, an absence of programs and trainings that can impart skills. And that is where the government needs to step in, aggressively. The government has over the last few years introduced a slew of policies and schemes to address these concerns.
A worrying trend is the rising rate of unemployment in the country. India's unemployment rate rose to 8.30% in December last year, the highest in 16 months, from 8.00% in November, according to data released from the Centre for Monitoring Indian Economy (CMIE). From a political view point too, this remains the biggest challenge for the Narendra Modi government. Lack of jobs and rising inflation will be key points the Opposition will raise as the country heads to National elections next year. This will likely find resonance in the large young population too whose votes every party will be out to seek.
The worry is that the young who can serve as engines for an economic growth can also impact it negatively. Lack of jobs would lead to a drop in consumer spending and aggravate social tensions. Women, of course, pay a heavier price here too. A report by Bloomberg which came out last year points out that the number of working women in India dropped to a dire figure of 9 percent by 2022 due to the COVID-19 pandemic, among other factors. The report also said that, ‘ initiating policy changes like improving access to education and child care, diminishing gender disparities, and increasing the number of women in the workforce could help add around $20 trillion to global GDP by 2050.’
In response, the government has launched an ambitious rozgar mela (employment fair) scheme where Modi has promised to provide one million government jobs to the youth. In virtual sessions that started in October last year, Modi has handed out thousands of appointment letters in various parts of the country. The rozgar mela is a good initiative but more needs to be done.
Looking at the larger picture, while a fast growing economy is news for cheer, rising inflation and unemployment play spoiler. It would be a pity if the India story was not capitalized using the demographic dividends. As India heads for general elections next year and state polls soon, these issues are likely to be the talking points of all political parties.
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