Global rice supply is abundant in 2024–25 and 2025, driven by bumper harvests in several major producers (India, China, Bangladesh and parts of Southeast Asia). That plentiful supply — together with large public stocks, softer import demand and intense price competition from India — has pushed international rice quotations lower in 2025. Premium aromatic basmati has shown localized strength after weather damage in some growing areas, but world non-basmati/regular rice prices hit multi-year lows.
1) Global production — who makes how much ?
World production (milled basis): roughly 540 – 542 million tonnes in 2024/25 – 2025/26 (estimates). Global stocks and supplies are close to record levels.
Largest producers: India (approx. 150 million tons), China (145 million tons), Bangladesh (36–37 million tons), followed by Indonesia, Vietnam, Thailand, Myanmar and Pakistan. India and China together account for over half of world rice production.
Why these numbers matter: rice is highly concentrated — production shifts in India, China or Thailand materially change world availability and prices.
2) Production trends by
major exporting countries India : A bumper crop in the marketing year around 2024–25 lifted India’s output towards the 145 –150 million tons (milled) range. Record production and large government stocks have supported active export offers.
Thailand & Vietnam: Both remain large exporters but shipments in 2025 have been hit by intense price competition from India and by some crop/quality swings. Thailand’s shipments fell in early 2025 as buyers shifted to cheaper Indian offers.
Pakistan: A major basmati and non-basmati supplier; flooding and weather events in parts of South Asia have pressured output of some premium varieties in 2025, supporting basmati differently than regular rice.
3) Global demand and trade flows
Trade volumes : International rice trade has been projected to expand modestly in 2025, but trade values are under pressure because prices are lower.
Buyer behaviour : Importers in Africa, the Middle East and parts of Asia are price-sensitive; when India offers competitively priced non-basmati rice, many buyers switch away from Thailand/Vietnam, shifting trade flows. That switch has dented shipments from traditional exporters.
4) Price scenario — what’s happening and why prices are down
The situation: international rice prices fell significantly through 2024–25 and into 2025 and agencies commentaries during 2025 describe rice prices hitting multi-year lows or “hitting a floor.”
India’s aggressive export offers / price competition — India’s large output and the ability of exporters to offer cheap non-basmati rice lured buyers away from Thailand and Vietnam, undercutting regional prices.
High carryover stocks (India’s public stocks & global inventories) — India’s central buffer (FCI and state procurement) and other carryover stocks reduced urgency for imports and lowered spot demand. APEDA noted FCI stocks significantly above the 5-year average as of mid-2025.
Soft import demand / switching patterns — some traditional importers delayed purchases or bought cheaper origins; in aggregate this reduced upward price pressure.
Variety/quality segmentation — while ordinary non-aromatic rice weakened, premium basmati showed localized strength where floods or heavy rains hit producing districts (e.g., parts of India/Pakistan), reducing supply for those varieties and lifting their prices. This keeps a split market: cheap regular rice vs. tighter premium rice.
5) India — export situation and state-wise production (India details) Exports
Export volumes: Indian industry and some forecasts expected exports for the 2025–26 marketing year to be well above previous years, with projections ranging from 22–30 million tonnes depending on assumptions (multiple industry estimates in Sept–Nov 2025 discussed higher shipments given the bumper crop and strong milling). At the same time, official monthly dashboards showed some slowing in Q2 2025 (seasonal), because of large domestic stocks and active government procurement. In short: India is shipping large volumes and remains the price-competitive global supplier in 2025.
Policy notes: India lifted a two-year ban on exports of de-oiled rice bran in early October 2025 — a move expected to revive some by-product exports and support processors. Policy changes like these shift flows and margins in the rice value chain.
Bangladesh Turns to the U.S., Iran Faces Financial Turmoil
Bangladesh’s Shift and India’s Changing Trade Equation
Bangladesh used to be one of India’s closest friends and reliable trade partners. However, after the recent change in government there, the impact is now visible on bilateral trade relations as well. Although Bangladesh produces rice domestically, it often relied on India for rice supplies whenever needed.
This year, however, the United States has stepped into that role. After supplying 440,000 tons of wheat, reports now suggest that rice shipments from the U.S. to Bangladesh are also on the way. This development threatens India’s 800,000 metric ton rice export market to Bangladesh, signaling a potential shift in South Asian trade dynamics.
Iran’s Crisis and India’s Stuck Payments
Iran, one of India’s largest rice importers—buying 8 to 12 lakh tons annually, mostly premium basmati—is now struggling with a severe financial crisis. The bankruptcy of Ayandeh Bank, Iran’s biggest private financial institution, has worsened matters.
With losses exceeding 2% of Iran’s GDP (around USD 5 billion), payment settlements for Indian exporters have been jeopardized. As a result, Indian rice exporters face mounting risks of stuck payments and shrinking opportunities in a key Middle Eastern market. Simultaneously, reports suggest that global demand for rice exports is slowing in 2025.
Production in India — state wise
Government and sector sources list the top paddy/rice producing states (figures are recent season / advance estimates or state procurement figures):
Uttar Pradesh — 217.4 lakh tonnes (21.74 million tons) paddy (one of the largest single-state outputs).
Punjab — 146.8 lakh tonnes (14.68 million tons).
West Bengal — 120.8 lakh tonnes (12.08 million tons).
Chhattisgarh — 97.0 lakh tonnes (9.70 million tons).
Telangana — 81.7 lakh tonnes (8.17 million tons).
What this means: production is geographically broad — not concentrated in one small region — so a combination of state-level bumper yields tends to translate fairly quickly into national upward supply pressure.
6) Why Indian domestic prices can still be weak even with large procurement
Even with strong government procurement in some states, domestic prices are pressured because:
Large procurement fills public godowns (FCI and state warehouses), reducing market offtake and creating a visible “glut.” Government agencies noted stocks were well above average mid-2025.
States with bumper output (e.g., Telangana in 2025) face storage/logistics bottlenecks; unsold marketable surplus increases local distress or forced off-loads at lower prices. Local media reported storage crisis pressures in Telangana in October 2025.
Export demand, while robust in tonnage, is price-sensitive; if world prices fall, domestic millers/exporters may reduce farmgate paddy buying or only buy at lower prices — passing downward pressure to farmers.
7) Outlook — what to watch next
Monsoon/rabi weather and flood impacts (esp. basmati areas): weather risk can tighten premium supplies and push up those prices quickly.
Indian policy moves — export restrictions, or stock release programs (grain auctions) will be market movers. Recent policy moves such as resumption of rice-bran product exports show how policy changes can affect downstream markets.
Currency & freight — rupee movements and global freight costs change competitiveness; a weaker rupee or cheaper freight makes Indian rice more competitive and can sustain high export volumes at low nominal world prices.
8) Practical takeaway for stakeholders
Buyers / importers: abundant supply means good availability and bargaining power today — but monitor weather for premium varieties.
Farmers / state governments: storage and logistics are critical. States with bumper output should coordinate sales, stagger releases, and press for
India
• Production: 125.0 M MT
• Exports (2024): 17–22 M MT(India is the world’s largest rice exporter by volume)
China
• Production: 147.7 M MT
• Exports (2024): 1.1 M MT
Bangladesh
• Production: 35.5 M MT
• Exports (2024): 0.0–0.5 M MT (mostly domestic consumption; modest exports)
Indonesia
• Production: 34.4 M MT
• Exports (2024): negligible — mostly import-substituting / domestic use
Vietnam
• Production: 27.1 M MT
• Exports (2024): 5–9 M MT (Vietnam is a top global exporter)
Thailand
• Production: 19.5 M MT
• Exports (2024): 7.7–10.0 M MT
Myanmar (Burma)
• Production: 12.5 M MT
• Exports (2024): 2.0 M MT (varies year to year)
additional procurement or transport support to avoid distress sales. Snapshot
By Suresh Manchanda
(The content of this article reflects the views of writer and contributor, not necessarily those of the publisher and editor. All disputes are subject to the exclusive jurisdiction of competent courts and forums in Delhi/New Delhi only)
Leave Your Comment