The Stockholm International Peace Research Institute (SIPRI) has reported that India has expanded its nuclear arsenal beyond that of Pakistan, marking a significant development in South Asia's strategic landscape. According to SIPRI's Yearbook 2026, India possessed approximately 190 nuclear warheads as of January 2026, compared to Pakistan's estimated stockpile of 170 warheads.
The report highlights that India's nuclear stockpile has grown by 10 warheads over the past year. In 2025, SIPRI had estimated India's arsenal at 180 warheads. Of the current stockpile, around 12 warheads are believed to be deployed and operationally available. In contrast, Pakistan's nuclear arsenal has remained unchanged at 170 warheads, indicating no increase in its stockpile during the same period.
SIPRI noted that India has continued to modernize its nuclear forces and expand its capabilities through the development of new types of nuclear delivery systems. The report emphasized that New Delhi's modernization efforts are increasingly focused on building long-range weapons capable of reaching targets across China, reflecting India's broader security concerns beyond the South Asian region.
The assessment suggests that India's strategic planning is increasingly influenced by the need to address challenges posed by China's growing military capabilities. This has led to investments in advanced missile systems, improved delivery platforms, and enhanced deterrence capabilities. Nevertheless, SIPRI observed that India remains deeply engaged in its long-standing strategic rivalry with Pakistan, which continues to shape many aspects of its nuclear posture.
While Pakistan has not increased the number of its nuclear warheads, SIPRI pointed out that Islamabad continued to develop new delivery systems and accumulate fissile material during 2025. These developments indicate that Pakistan may be preparing for future expansion of its nuclear arsenal. The report suggests that the country's ongoing investments in nuclear infrastructure and missile technology could enable a gradual increase in its stockpile over the coming decade.
The findings underscore the continuing importance of nuclear deterrence in South Asia, where India and Pakistan have maintained nuclear arsenals for decades. The region remains one of the world's most closely watched nuclear flashpoints due to the history of conflict and unresolved disputes between the two neighboring countries.
SIPRI's latest assessment comes amid a broader global trend of nuclear modernization among major powers. Many nuclear-armed states are investing in new technologies, delivery systems, and infrastructure to strengthen their strategic deterrence capabilities. Against this backdrop, India's growing arsenal and Pakistan's potential future expansion are likely to remain key issues in regional and international security discussions.
The report highlights the evolving nature of nuclear competition in Asia, where strategic calculations increasingly involve not only traditional India-Pakistan dynamics but also the wider geopolitical influence of China. As all three countries continue to modernize their military capabilities, nuclear stability and arms control remain critical concerns for policymakers and security experts worldwide.
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