Gold prices are rising, which means more wealth for investors. But making money is just the first step — keeping it safe from risks like theft, inflation, or market swings is the real challenge. Are we aware that better options have emerged !
The reported figures for gold sales in India during the Diwali / Dhanteras 2025 period:
● According to the Confederation of All India Traders (CAIT), gold + silver alone accounted for about ₹ 60,000 crore on Dhanteras.
● As per ND Profit, the total consumer spending during Dhanteras (including gold, silver and other items) was estimated at about ₹ 1 lakh crore.
Why are we Indians so fascinated with gold?
Our long history of invasions has shown that gold remains a safe haven during times of economic uncertainty and turmoil. Invaders taught us that gold holds value beyond any currency. When fears of recession, financial instability, or geopolitical tensions rise, investors turn to gold as a reliable hedge. Global growth concerns and trade conflicts increase this demand, pushing gold prices higher as more capital flows into the market.
Why so much noise about buying gold today?
Since World War II, the U.S. dollar has dominated global markets, but a weakening dollar and low real interest rates have raised concerns among investors and countries holding dollar assets. Because gold is priced in dollars, a weaker dollar makes gold cheaper for holders of other currencies, boosting demand. Low or negative real interest rates reduce the cost of holding non-yielding gold, making it more attractive.
Central banks from major economies like the U.S, China and India are increasing gold reserves to diversify away from the dollar and stabilize their assets. Institutional investors and large funds also drive steady demand through gold-backed products.
Inflation fears further boost gold’s appeal as a store of value, protecting against currency depreciation and eroding purchasing power.
In countries like India, a major gold importer, a weaker rupee raises import costs, pushing local gold prices higher. Seasonal festivals, weddings, taxes, and supply chain costs also influence prices.
Currently, record-high gold prices are fueled by expectations of U.S. interest rate cuts, central bank buying tightening supply, and currency pressures making gold more expensive in domestic markets.
Historical basis & benchmark for understanding the true worth of gold.
● Gold has delivered strong returns over the long run. Web based reports show that from 1950 to 2023, gold’s CAGR (compound annual growth rate) was approximately 9 % per year.
● In the last 5 years, gold in India has had ~13.5 % annualized returns.
● Over the last 10 years, some gold ETFs in India have given ~13.46 % annualized return.
● Goldman Sachs has raised its global gold price target for 2025 (e.g. $3,700/oz, and in extreme case $4,500).
So the backdrop is that gold has historically performed well and many forecasts see room for more gains (although with risk).
Gold Outlook: The Next 1–3 Years (India)
Gold’s journey in India could take one of three paths — steady growth, a strong rally, or a quiet phase — shaped by global forces such as U.S. interest rates, inflation trends, the rupee’s movement, and geopolitical events.
In a moderate scenario, gold continues its steady climb as demand stays firm and central banks ease rates slightly. Returns could average around 8–12% a year, translating to a 25–40% rise over three years — with prices potentially reaching ₹1.5–1.7 lakh.
If the world turns more uncertain, the bullish scenario could take center stage. Strong central bank buying, global tensions, and a weakening rupee might lift gold sharply, delivering 15–20% annual gains, or up to 75% over three years — pushing prices toward ₹1.9–2.1 lakh or higher.
A downside or flat scenario could unfold if the global economy surprises on the upside and interest rates rise. In that case, gold may even dip slightly, with returns between –3% and +5% a year, keeping prices around ₹1.2–1.35 lakh.
These are broad estimates — they don’t factor in taxes, storage costs, or sudden market shocks. As always, gold’s shine will depend on how the world’s economies, policies, and currencies evolve in the years ahead.
Risks That Could Derail Gold’s Upside.
Though gold looks promising, several factors could limit or reverse gains. First, if central banks in the U.S. or India tighten policy more than expected, rising real interest rates could make income-generating assets more attractive than gold. A stronger U.S. dollar or rupee appreciation can reduce local returns, since gold is priced in dollars. A rebound in global markets and increased risk appetite might weaken demand for gold. Changes in gold supply, central bank buying, or regulations could also pressure prices. Lastly, costs like making charges, storage, and liquidity issues can erode returns for physical gold holders.
In sum, gold’s performance hinges on policy, market sentiment, and currency shifts—factors investors should watch closely. Recent news,
“Gold price today: MCX gold rate crashes to ₹128,000;” Mint, 21 Oct 2025. The fall was the highest for a day since 2012.
An individual must ask what he stands for: An investor or a person who wants to grow rich.
If some one is investing his spare money then;
● Gold still seems like a reasonable hedge and portfolio diversifier under base or upside scenarios.
● But it’s risky to lean too heavily on it. A modest allocation (e.g. 5-15 %) within a balanced portfolio.
If some one has aspiration to grow rich then he has to remember that
no one whose primary wealth came from accumulating or hoarding gold has ever become the richest person in the world in modern recorded history.
Gold is a store of value, not a growth asset, as it doesn’t generate wealth. It doesn't compound, earn dividends, or produce output like businesses or real estate do.
India's wealthiest individuals tend to build their fortunes through ownership in scalable businesses (tech, oil, retail, etc.), not by holding precious metals.
● Mukesh Ambani – Net worth US $105 billion; Chairman of Reliance Industries (energy, retail, telecom, and digital services).
● Gautam Adani – Net worth US $92 billion; Founder of Adani Group (infrastructure, ports, power, renewables, and airports).
● Savitri Jindal & family – Net worth US $40.2 billion; head of O.P. Jindal Group (steel, power, mining, infrastructure).
● Shiv Nadar – Net worth US $33.2 billion; Founder of HCL Technologies, a leading global IT services company.
● Dilip Shanghvi – Net worth US $26.4 billion; Founder of Sun Pharma, India’s largest pharmaceutical manufacturer.
Not only these people but even the ones who buy gold have earned the money by working in similar fashion in all varieties of professions and businesses.
India’s Golden Wealth and the Age of Invasions brought immense miseries.
For much of recorded history, India was one of the richest civilizations on earth — not only in culture and knowledge but also in sheer material wealth. From ancient times, India was famous for its vast reserves of gold, silver, and gemstones. The subcontinent was the world’s leading center for trade in spices, textiles, and precious metals, earning it the name “Sone ki Chidiya,” or “the Golden Bird.” Gold flowed into India through trade with Rome, Arabia, and Southeast Asia, and over centuries, temples, palaces, and merchants amassed enormous treasures.
This immense wealth, however, also made India a magnet for invaders. From the early medieval period onwards, waves of foreign powers were drawn by stories of India’s gold. The first major plunder came with Mahmud of Ghazni in the 11th century, who invaded multiple times, looting the famed temples of northern India, including Somnath, and carrying back tons of gold and jewels to Central Asia. Later, the Delhi Sultanate and Mughal invaders, such as Babur, also entered through the northwestern passes — driven partly by the promise of India’s fabled riches.
The concentration of wealth in royal treasuries and temples continued to attract attention from abroad. In the 18th century, Nadir Shah of Persia invaded Delhi and looted its treasures — including the legendary Peacock Throne and the Kohinoor diamond — an event so devastating that it marked the decline of the Mughal Empire.
When European powers arrived, the pattern repeated in a more systematic form. Over time, what began as plundering through conquest turned into economic drain — the extraction of resources, taxes, and bullion that left India impoverished by the time of independence.
For nearly a thousand years, India’s reputation as a land of gold was less for its pride and more of a curse. The same prosperity that symbolized its cultural brilliance also invited centuries of invasion, looting, and subjugation. The legacy of that golden allure still echoes today.
Wealth, Trust, and the Risk of Exploitation.
In societies where families display visible wealth — through gold, property, businesses, or social status — their children, especially young women, can sometimes attract people with hidden or dishonest motives. Such exploitation may appear in many forms: emotional manipulation, fake expressions of love, or false promises of marriage, all aimed at gaining access to money, gifts, or family assets.
For example, there have been reported cases where individuals pretended to be deeply in love, only to later demand expensive gifts, jewellery, or financial help. In some instances, the deception went further — marriages were arranged under false identities or with the hidden intent of controlling family property. In 2021, Uttar Pradesh (UP) government has enforced a law for prohibition of unlawful fraudulent religious conversions via marriage.
Can India pursue prosperity without awakening the dangers that come with its own wealth.
The world has taught India the forgotten lesson from the scriptures:
"शिक्त: परमं बलम्" (Shaktiḥ Paramaṁ Balam)
— “Power (Shakti) is the supreme strength.”
This reflects the central role of Shakti as the ultimate source of strength and energy. The way ‘make in India’ is making headway. India is creating wealth by making it powerful. A recent example,
Defence Stocks vs. Gold: A New Chapter in India’s Wealth Story
In recent years, a new trend has quietly reshaped the investment landscape. Those who put their money into India’s public sector defence companies — such as HAL (Hindustan Aeronautics Limited), BEL (Bharat Electronics Limited), BDL (Bharat Dynamics Limited), and Mazagon Dock Shipbuilders — have seen returns that far outpaced traditional assets like gold.
Driven by India’s growing emphasis on self-reliance in defence (Atmanirbhar Bharat) and a massive rise in defence exports, these companies have benefited from strong government orders, improved profitability, and investor optimism about the country’s strategic capabilities.
Education: The Investment That Outshines Gold
If there’s one investment that has consistently delivered far greater returns — not just in money, but in opportunity, confidence, and progress — it’s education. While gold can glitter and grow in price, education multiplies in value through every skill learned, every door opened, and every generation uplifted. A well-educated individual can create wealth many times over, adapt to changing times, and contribute meaningfully to society — something no bar of gold can ever do.
Education can transform a person’s lifetime earnings by hundreds or even thousands of percent. It empowers people to innovate, to build businesses, to lead, and to shape the world around them. Unlike gold, whose shine can fade with economic cycles, the value of knowledge only compounds with time.
Conclusion.
The Government, central banks, and wise investors share a crucial responsibility to hedge their wealth by investing in gold as a safeguard against uncertainty and risk. But for India as a nation, the challenge goes beyond protecting wealth—it’s time to invest boldly in the well-being of our people, strengthen our borders, and reclaim lost territories.
At the same time, we must ignite a passion for innovation and entrepreneurship—encouraging the public to support unicorn startups and the Make in India mission, which have the power to create wealth far faster than traditional assets. Building an investor-friendly culture is the need of the hour, where frauds are detected early and prosecuted swiftly to deter wrongdoers.
By combining smart wealth protection with forward-looking economic growth and robust governance, India can secure not just its assets but its future prosperity.
By Rakesh Kumar
(The content of this article reflects the views of writer and contributor, not necessarily those of the publisher and editor. All disputes are subject to the exclusive jurisdiction of competent courts and forums in Delhi/New Delhi only)
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