ELECTORAL LANDSCAPE SHIFT : BJP’S HAT TRICK AND CONGRESS’S SETBACK

The counting of votes for the assembly elections for Chhattisgarh, Madhya Pradesh, Rajasthan, and Telangana was done on 3rd December 2023 and for Mizoram on the following day. The BJP secured a clear majority in Chhattisgarh, Madhya Pradesh and Rajasthan while making significant gains in Telangana. The Congress is set to form its govt in Telangana for the first time.

After high octane campaign, the election results deliver a significant boost to the BJP and a substantial setback to the Congress, marking the end of the Congress rule in three states. The BJP’s ‘historic and unprecedented’ hat trick of victories in three Hindi heartland states are a harbinger of a hat trick for next year’s Lok Sabha elections, said PM Modi. The victory in Telangana is a solace to Congress after Karnataka, as the party expands its base in southern India.

Chhattisgarh – The state was separated from Madhya Pradesh in 2000, the elections in 2003, 2008 and 2013 were won by the BJP and Raman Singh remained the Chief Minister for 15 years. In 2018, the Congress was voted to Power, by winning 68 out of 90 assembly seats, and Bhupesh Baghel became the CM. Despite Baghel’s popularity and good initiatives, the unexpected defeat of the Congress govt. surprised many. No opinion poll or exit Poll or any political pundit predicted the defeat of the Congress government in the state. After the 2018 loss to Congress, the state BJP seemed leaderless and rudderless. Their tallest leader and three times CM Raman Singh was totally inactive and with no second rung, there appeared to be a vacuum. But despite the lack of a clear state leader to rally around, with PM Modi as the face, a turn towards welfare and a focus on Congress' corruption, the BJP has pulled off the most unprecedented victory by winning 54 out of 90 seats. The promise of the BJP of purchasing paddy at Rs 3100 per quintal and giving Rs 12000 yearly to every woman influenced the voters. The BJP effectively raised the issues of irregularities in coal, excise, use of district mineral fund and the last-minute issue of Mahadev app swayed voters further away from the Congress. For tribals, Baghel’s perceived failure in the Bastar and Sarguja belts, coupled with unfulfilled promises from the Congress leadership, fostered a sense of alienation. The Congress leadership had promised chief ministerial mantle to TS Singh Deo midway through the term and failed to meet the promise. In this election, the BJP increased its vote share to 46.3% from 33% in 2018, whereas the Congress slightly decreased to 42.2% from 43% in the previous election. The Congress’s ability to defend even the short tenures in office is clearly weak.

Madhya Pradesh – The BJP has been in power in the state since 2003, except for one and half year interregnum when Kamal Nath was the CM after 2018, and Shivraj Singh Chouhan was the CM for over 18 years. The party staved off anti-incumbency to score an emphatic win both in terms of vote share and the seat tally. It is both a positive vote for the incumbent and a negative vote for the opposition, when the reverse is so much easier to accomplish. The outcome of the elections reflects the ability of the BJP to convert adversity into opportunity and the Congress’ ability to snatch the defeat from the jaws of victory. The Congress lost an opportunity to effect a generational shift in its leadership in 2018, when it chose Kamal Nath over Jyotiraditya Scindia as CM. Scindia quit the party and joined the BJP in 2020 with his supporters. In this election, the Congress gave Kamal Nath, 77, almost total control over the party campaign, struggled to connect as a rooted or charismatic leader.

  PM Modi’s appeal among women voters as coupled with welfare delivery and CM Chouhan’s own women centric schemes including ‘the Ladli Bahna Yogna’ influenced the female voters significantly. The BJP’s strategic deployment of its senior leaders, including ministers, from the state for assembly elections signalled their commitment to the state’s welfare. The BJP has won 163 seats and the Congress got only 66 in the house of 230 members. The Congress may have done well in securing around 40% of the vote share but in bipolar contest, it is no consolation when 49% voters opt for the BJP. The mandate reflects a positive sentiment. Madhya Pradesh has become a new BJP fortress like Gujarat and Uttar Pradesh.

Rajasthan – The voters of the state like change every five years and alternated between the BJP and the Congress. Ashok Gahlot was the Congress CM since 2018, making the BJP as the favourites in 2023. The opinion and exit polls predicted tough contest between the BJP and the Congress with an edge to the BJP, and the same happened when the results were declared on Sunday. The BJP won with 115 seats; the Congress got only 69 from 199 seats for which the elections were held.

There was a deep factional divide within the Congress party’s state unit, between Ashok Gahlot and Sachin Pilot, who has remained unhappy for five years for not being made the CM of the state. There was open rebellion by Pilot, the central leadership of the party was not able to amicably resolve the Gahlot-Pilot disputes eroding the Congress’s prospects. The campaign of the BJP led by PM Modi raised the issues of corruption, particularly the Red Diary, safety of the women, poor law and order etc. made the road difficult for the Congress. Hindutva was also highlighted raising the killing of Kanhaiyalal for supporting Nupur Sharma and comments made by Congress leaders on Sanatan.

PM Modi’s campaign on welfare, his outreach to women, backwards, Dalits and tribals helped the party. The key reason for BJP’s win was the support of women voters. Women have emerged as a solid and loyal constituency for the BJP, both due to Modi’s image as a sensitive enabler of welfare in terms of goods and services making lives of the women comfortable, schemes for gas cylinders, homes, drinking water, toilets etc. are widely appreciated. The BJP’s vote share increased to 41.7% in 2023 from 38.8% in 2018, whereas the Congress has got 39.5% in 2023 from 39.3% in 2018.

Telangana – It was a part of Andhra Pradesh before 2014 and had strong roots of the Congress party. Telangana movement for a separate state was launched by K C Rao (KCR) in 2001 and in 2014 Telangana got statehood. KCR was the head of the Telangana Rashtra Samiti (TRS) which was renamed as Bharat Rashtra Samiti (BRS). KCR has been the Chief Minister of the state from the beginning. The state assembly has 119 seats. In the 2018 elections, KCR led BRS won 88 seats and KCR became the CM for the second successive term. In the 2023 elections, the dream of KCR of becoming the first CM in southern states to score a hat trick has shattered, as over nine years rule of KCR in Telangana has come to an end and with this his desire for immediate national role also seems to have crash landed. The Congress won the elections with 64 seats while BRS got 39, BJP 8 and AIMIM 7 seats. The BJP increased its vote share significantly. The main reason of the defeat is deep anti-incumbency against the BRS, the aggressive campaign by the Congress and the BJP accusing the govt. for corruption, family rule, farmers’ suicides, and unemployment influenced the voters. Telangana will have the first Congress govt. in the state.

Mizoram – The first assembly elections in the state, with 40 seats, were held in 1987. The Congress and Mizo National Front (MNF) have formed govt. four times each before the 2023 elections. In the 2018 elections, Mizo National Front (MNF) formed the govt. headed by Zoramthanga. Zoram People’s Movement (ZPM), the youngest party formed by the former IPS officer Lalduhoma in 2017, has got the majority in 2023 elections by winning 27 seats while MNF won 10, BJP 2 and Congress 1 seat. Lalduhoma was part of Indira Gandhi’s security in 1982, before he quit and joined the Congress and later, he joined the MNF. There was wave in favour of ZPM. The incumbent Chief Minister lost his Aizawl East 1 seat. The ZPM contested the polls by highlighting the lack of development, need for financial reforms and allegations of corruption against Zoramthanga. The Congress could not capture the anti-incumbency against the MNF. The result puts a further dampener on its prospects in Northeast where it is losing relevance. The BJP got one seat in 2018 and brought the tally to two this time.

The BJP went to the polls with PM Modi as the face of the party. His popularity remains intact on the ground, and the trust of the voters in him, cutting across caste lines has been the biggest strength of the party. The earlier slogan ‘Modi hai toh mumkin hai’ with its modified version ‘Modi ki guarantee’ has gone well with the people. The welfare schemes for women have increased the support base of the women voters for the party. The organizational strength of the BJP, which always remains in election mode, with proper co-ordination including the focus on the booth level management yielded positive results. The OBC agenda of the opposition has been rejected by the people. The poor need help irrespective of any caste.

Attempt to divide the people on caste basis will be harmful for the country. There is need to focus on job creation for the youth than the reservation policy for political gains. Also the promise to implement the old pension scheme (OPS) will not be good for the economy of the country.

For the success of the vibrant democracy, the opposition must be strong. Congress, the grand old party of India, must introspect and recalibrate its strategy to take on the strong BJP.

By Manoj Dubey
Principal (Retd.) 
Delhi Public Schools

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