Drones, or Unmanned Aerial Vehicles (UAVs), have existed for decades, but their modern evolution into versatile, deadly tools owes much to advancements in satellite technology, computer processing, precision targeting, artificial intelligence (AI), and robotics. This combination has revolutionized warfare, creating a profound shift often referred to as a "Revolution in Military Affairs."
Assassinations by Drone
Drones have normalized extrajudicial killings, often disregarding the sovereignty of other nations. It's been 22 years since remotely controlled drones were first used to carry out such killings beyond the battlefield, even in the absence of hostilities. Over this time, the list of drone assassination targets has grown significantly, including:
> Al-Qaeda leader Al Salim Harithi (Yemen, 2002)
> Tehrik-i-Taliban Pakistan (TTP) leader Baitullah Mehsud (Pakistan, 2009)
> Muslim cleric Anwar Al-Awlaki (Yemen, 2011)
> Al-Shabaab leader Ahmed Ali Godane (Somalia, 2014)
> UK citizen and ISIS operative Reyaad Khan (Raqqa, Syria, 2015)
> Iranian General Qasem Soleimani (Iraq, 2020)
> Al-Qaeda leader Ayman Al-Zawahiri (Kabul, 2022)
> Armed drones, in this context, function as “snipers in the sky,” offering unprecedented precision in eliminating high-profile targets.
The Evolution of Drone Warfare
The 2020 Armenia-Azerbaijan conflict marked a pivotal moment in the integration of drones into kinetic warfare. However, it was the Ukraine-Russia conflict that showcased drones' development as strategic, operational, and tactical weapons. In the former conflict, drones earned the title "magic bullet," while in Ukraine, their scope and scale of use expanded significantly.
In the Middle East, drones have demonstrated incredible flexibility and adaptability in proxy wars. For example, Hamas utilized drone swarms to overwhelm Israeli sensors and air defense systems before launching ground assaults, a tactic inspired by the ongoing Ukraine-Russia conflict. The Islamic State similarly weaponized off-the-shelf drones, using them to drop grenades and explosives on specific targets. These armed drones played a key role in the defense of Mosul during the Islamic State’s counter-offensive.
Strategic Drone Usage
The Houthis, backed by Iran, also demonstrated drones' effectiveness in maritime proxy warfare, disrupting global shipping choke points. They used loitering munitions to target naval and merchant vessels and employed drone swarms to deplete air defense systems. Notably, they targeted Saudi oil facilities in Abqaiq and Khurais, reducing Saudi oil output by 50% before the situation was restored. No other weapon system, except drones, has posed such a significant threat to maritime security by non-state actors.
Drones and Proxy Warfare
Beyond their weaponization, drones have grown increasingly sophisticated in civilian applications, largely due to artificial intelligence. As drones become more accessible to non-state actors, they pose a growing challenge. In June 2021, two drones dropped improvised explosive devices (IEDs) at Jammu Airbase, marking the first drone attack by jihadi groups like Lashkar-e-Taiba (LeT), likely with the backing of Pakistan's ISI. This event highlighted drones' emerging role in the air dimension of proxy warfare, offering deniability to state actors.
Big Drones vs. Small Drones
In the ongoing Ukraine-Russia conflict, drones have been crucial in Ukraine’s asymmetric war against Russia. Larger drones, like the Turkish-made Bayraktar, played a significant role in early stages, including sinking the Russian ship Moskova in August 2022. However, larger drones have become vulnerable to advanced air defenses. Smaller drones with lighter payloads have proven more effective in delivering results.
Initially, only advanced militaries could produce large drones like the US-made MQ-9 Reaper, which was employed for intelligence, surveillance, and reconnaissance (ISR) before being fitted with missiles. Smaller militaries, however, adapted by using smaller drones to overwhelm air defense systems, using sheer numbers to saturate targets.
The US Army has conducted extensive studies on drone warfare based on lessons from the Russia-Ukraine conflict. As a result, the Army is phasing out outdated drones and investing in cutting-edge technologies to maintain an edge in unmanned warfare. According to former US Chief of Staff Gen. Randy George, the battlefield has fundamentally shifted, with unmanned systems now more ubiquitous, affordable, and capable than ever before.
Cost Considerations
Both Russia and Ukraine have rapidly advanced their drone technology during the conflict. Ukraine, for example, has become a hotspot for small drone innovation, with President Zelensky aiming to produce one million drones by 2024. Despite a loss rate between 70% and 90%, drones remain far cheaper than fighter aircraft, making them an attractive option for ongoing conflict.
Recently, Ukraine claimed to have struck an oil refinery in Kstovo, Russia, approximately 800 kilometers from the frontline. While Ukraine lost many drones in the process, the cost of producing replacement drones is negligible compared to the cost of repairing damaged infrastructure, such as a refinery. Additionally, Ukraine has been converting civilian aircraft, like the Aeroprakt A-22, into attack drones, with each conversion costing just $130,000.
Meanwhile, Russia has also ramped up drone production and has started deploying fibre optic-controlled FPV Kamikaze (suicide) drones. These drones, like the Russian "Microbe," utilize AI-enabled machine vision to automatically track and destroy targets once designated by the operator. With over 3,000 "Microbe" drones in circulation, Russia has made significant strides in employing drones for both tactical and strategic operations.
Impact on Land Warfare
As drones become more autonomous, their impact on land warfare will be profound. Swarm drones, capable of independent navigation and target selection, will be increasingly common. In conflicts like the Armenia-Azerbaijan and Ukraine-Russia wars, drones have been used to carry out top attacks on tanks and other armored vehicles. Suicide drones like the Switchblade 300 and 600 have been particularly effective, with the 600 series capable of destroying tanks with its shaped-charge warhead.
The use of drones has sparked debates about the future of traditional armored platforms, such as tanks. Drones, particularly in swarm formations, can challenge conventional tactics by circumventing traditional shelter and terrain-based defenses, striking from unexpected angles. Infantry soldiers, too, are increasingly vulnerable to drone attacks, as drones can chase and target them with unprecedented precision.
Manned vs. Unmanned Warfare
As autonomous drones continue to evolve, experts like Elon Musk believe that they could eventually replace manned fighter aircraft. While drones may not render manned platforms obsolete, the proportion of unmanned to manned vehicles in air, land, and sea operations will undoubtedly increase. This shift is particularly evident in the ongoing cat-and-mouse innovation cycles between Russia and Ukraine, with both nations continuously developing new drones and counter-drone technologies.
In a recent report from the US Department of Defense, it was noted that naval destroyers in the Red Sea had destroyed 40 Iranian-made drones, using $2 million missiles to counter drones that cost as little as $2,000 each. This cost asymmetry raises questions about the sustainability of current military strategies, especially as drones become cheaper and more efficient.
Conclusion
The future of warfare will be increasingly shaped by drones, particularly autonomous ones with AI-enabled targeting systems. Swarm drones are poised to revolutionize military planning, and counter-drone strategies will likely involve electronic warfare (EW) and directed energy weapons. Countries like Israel and the UK are already exploring these technologies to counter the swarm threat. However, until these new countermeasures are fully developed, swarm drones will continue to dominate the military landscape.
As drones reshape the nature of warfare, they raise critical questions: Should we continue investing in traditional manned platforms? How will military strategies evolve as drones become more integral? The rise of drones challenges the conventional understanding of air, land, and sea power, and may ultimately render traditional weapons systems less relevant in modern conflict.
By RSN Singh
(The content of this article reflects the views of writers and contributors, not necessarily those of the publisher and editor. All disputes are subject to the exclusive jurisdiction of competent courts and forums in Delhi/New Delhi only)
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