“Democracy cannot succeed unless those who express their choice are prepared to choose wisely. The real safeguard of democracy, therefore, is education,” said Franklin D. Roosevelt, the longest serving US President.
India may not qualify as a reasonably educated state, nevertheless, the verdict its people handed over to the NDA government would have impressed any educated society. Most of the political pundits, exit polls, predictions, assessments, fell flat on their face and bit the dust. And this uncertainty of the political system is also perhaps its beauty. No political party can ever be sure of the voters’ mind, till the EVMs clearly and unambiguously spell out the input whispered in the electronic machines over a long 7 phase voting schedule.
If voting percentage can be assessed in terms of what the result was, it is again not a very easy puzzle to solve. The aggregate turnout across all phases was around 66 percent which also reflect some degree of voter fatigue compared to previous elections. States like West Bengal had notably high turnouts, with some phases recording up to 75.94 percent, while other regions showed lower engagement.
The powerful Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) experienced a significant decline in the number of seats in the 2024 elections due to several factors. A combination of political, economic, and social factors contributed to the reduced voter turnout, reflecting broader concerns and challenges within the electorate. These factors collectively contributed to the voter fatigue and anti-incumbency sentiment observed in the elections, reflecting broader discontent with the status quo and a desire for change.
Having successfully completed two consecutive terms in power, the BJP faced anti-incumbency sentiments and voter fatigue. Many voters expressed discontent with the government's handling of key issues such as employment and economic inequality, leading to a reduced voter turnout in some regions.
The BJP struggled in key states such as Maharashtra, Karnataka, and West Bengal, where local issues and strong regional parties diminished its influence. In Karnataka, for instance, internal issues and corruption allegations weakened the party's standing, while in West Bengal, the Trinamool Congress maintained a robust voter base despite many high profile rallies and high voltage campaigns in the Trinamool bastion. It could muster only 12 seats against 18 during last Lok Sabha elections. The saving grace, if at all, would be a double digit figure where the BJP found some good case in Sandeshkhali.
The BJP faced strong resistance from the Trinamool Congress (TMC), led by Mamata Banerjee. Despite earlier gains, the BJP struggled to maintain momentum due to effective ground-level organisation by the TMC and local dissatisfaction with the BJP’s approach.
In other states like Karnataka and Haryana, governance issues, including allegations of corruption and inefficiency, damaged the BJP's reputation. The BJP struggled in a few states due to a combination of factors, including local political dynamics, economic issues, and governance challenges. These governance challenges led to voter disillusionment and a desire for change. Here are some of the key reasons.
Maharashtra: The state experienced significant political turbulence and dissatisfaction with the BJP's choice of allies. BJP’s handing of the local and long term ally - Shiv Sena - would also have had some bearing on the current number that the saffron party received on June 4th. Local issues such as agrarian distress and water scarcity overshadowed national narratives.
Karnataka: Internal issues within the state BJP government, including allegations of corruption and poor governance, weakened the party's standing. The Congress and JD(S) capitalised on these weaknesses, gaining ground in rural areas.
Other than local issues in key states where BJP was either hopeful or have had a strong cadre base, economic challenges are one of the important factors in the result handed out to the incumbent government. Issues such as unemployment, inflation, and agrarian distress were significant factors in states like Bihar and Uttar Pradesh. These economic grievances led to a loss of support for the BJP as voters felt their economic conditions had not improved sufficiently.
Despite efforts to address these problems, many voters remained dissatisfied with the government's performance in these areas. The united opposition under the INDIA alliance effectively campaigned on issues of social justice, economic inequality, and governance, which resonated with a significant portion of the electorate. The opposition's ability to mobilise voters and present a cohesive front also contributed to the BJP's decline in seats.
As they say, the road to Delhi goes via Uttar Pradesh. The biggest states both in terms of population and 80 Lok Sabha seats, did not fare as per BJP’s desire. From 62 to 33 is a huge loss especially at a time when the incumbent chief minister is from the same party and his tenure is not marred with any exceptional controversies. The BJP's traditional strategies did not resonate as effectively, and local alliances based on caste and community interests undermined the BJP's voter base.
This is evident from the big ticket losses including 9 of 12 seats in the Varanasi region, which includes Varanasi, Bhadohi, Chandauli, Mirzapur, Robertsganj, Ghazipur, Jaunpur, Machhlishahr, Ghosi, Azamgarh, Lalganj, and Ballia. Smriti Irani from a lesser known Congress candidate in Amethi, which she won in 2019. These losses underscore the challenges faced by the BJP in various regions, including internal party issues, local grievances, and strong opposition campaigns.
The defeat of such high-profile leaders indicates a shift in voter preferences and the effectiveness of opposition strategies in certain key areas. Not taking away the performance of consolidated opposition to stop the head of the incumbent government from making a strong claim to the top seat for an unprecedented third term in a row.
Formation of INDIA block and seat sharing arrangement between the Congress and Samajwadi party gave both Akhilesh Yadav and Rahul Gandhi a reason to smile and clear disappointment for the saffron brigade. Opposition's cohesive strategy and focus on social justice, economic inequality, and governance perhaps resonated with voters. The opposition managed to present a united front in the northern Indian state, effectively countering the BJP’s tall claims. And it did not stop here, the collapse of key alliances in states such as Bihar with JD(U)) and Punjab impacted the BJP's ability to secure the magic number of 272.
In several states, the BJP's national narrative was overshadowed by local issues and caste dynamics. This was particularly evident in states like Uttar Pradesh and Rajasthan, where local caste equations and community-specific issues influenced the election outcomes. These factors combined to create a challenging electoral environment for the BJP, resulting in a reduction in its overall seat count in the 2024 elections.
On the other hand Indian National Developmental Inclusive Alliance (INDIA) bloc comprising key opposition parties, performed notably well in the elections, challenging the dominance of the National Democratic Alliance. The formation of the INDIA bloc brought together major opposition parties such as the Congress, the Samajwadi Party (SP), the Trinamool Congress (TMC), and others. This unity helped consolidate anti-BJP votes, particularly in states like Uttar Pradesh, Bihar, and West Bengal.
In states like West Bengal, Tamil Nadu, and Maharashtra, the INDIA bloc capitalised on strong regional leaders and parties. The TMC in West Bengal, DMK in Tamil Nadu, and the coalition in Maharashtra provided a formidable challenge to the BJP. The bloc's emphasis on local issues such as agrarian distress, unemployment, and social justice resonated with voters. Their campaigns often highlighted failures of the incumbent government at the state and local levels, which helped them gain traction.
The collective bloc effectively implemented campaign strategies, including social media outreach, grassroots mobilisation, and strategic alliances. Their ability to present a united front on key issues helped in swaying public opinion. It managed to significantly reduce the BJP's seat count in Uttar Pradesh by leveraging caste dynamics and addressing local grievances. While in Bihar, the Mahagathbandhan performed well, reducing the BJP's influence in the Hindi-speaking state.
In West Bengal, the TMC maintained its stronghold, preventing the BJP from making substantial gains. Overall, the INDIA bloc's performance in the 2024 elections marked a significant shift in the political landscape, showcasing the potential for a united opposition to challenge the BJP's dominance effectively.
Bharat Jodo Yatra Impact…
Given the numbers falling in the bag of INDIA bloc, it is interesting to see the impact of Bharat Jodo Yatra on the voters mind. It played a critical role in reshaping the Congress’s strategy and improving its electoral prospects in the 2024 elections. The initiative highlighted the party’s efforts to reconnect with voters and address pressing socio-economic issues, which contributed to its improved performance in several regions.
It looks that the Rahul Gandi-led Yatra significantly energised the Congress party, boosting morale among party workers and supporters. It helped to re-establish Rahul Gandhi as a key political figure, and his direct engagement with the public resonated well, particularly in areas where the Congress had lost ground.
The Yatra aimed to connect with grassroots communities, addressing their concerns directly. This approach probably improved the Congress’s image as a party concerned with the common people’s issues, including unemployment, agrarian distress, and social justice. It also helped to improve public perception of the Congress by projecting a message of unity and inclusivity. It countered narratives of division and aimed to bring attention to economic and social issues that the BJP government was perceived to be neglecting.
The extensive media coverage of the Yatra increased its visibility and impact. Rahul Gandhi’s interactions and speeches during the Yatra were widely covered, helping to keep the Congress’s messages in the public discourse. In states like Maharashtra, Karnataka, and Uttar Pradesh, where the Yatra had significant reach, the Congress saw improved performance. The focus on local issues during the Yatra resonated with voters in these key battleground states.
Way forward…
With numbers not favouring BJP as it would have wished, there would be perceptible change in the way the coalition government functions going forward. Going forward, the BJP-led NDA government may adopt a multi-faceted approach to governance to address the challenges and leverage its strengths.
The government may continue its focus on infrastructure development, including transportation, digital infrastructure, and urban development, to boost economic growth and create jobs. Emphasis on initiatives like "Make in India" to enhance manufacturing capabilities and attract foreign investment.
Efforts to address agrarian distress through better support prices, improved irrigation, and enhanced rural infrastructure. Continued investment in healthcare infrastructure and educational reforms to improve accessibility and quality, particularly in rural areas. Promoting renewable energy projects and sustainability initiatives to address climate change and environmental degradation.
Expansion of social welfare schemes targeting the economically disadvantaged, women, and marginalised communities. Efforts to rebuild and strengthen alliances with regional parties to secure broader support and stability in both national and state-level politics. Leveraging the BJP's strong grassroots network to maintain and expand its voter base through active engagement and local issue resolution. Implementing stricter anti-corruption measures and promoting transparency to restore public trust in governance.
Enhancing efforts in wildlife conservation, pollution control, and sustainable development practices. Ensuring balanced development across various states and regions, with specific focus on underdeveloped and remote areas. It may also enhance administrative efficiency through digital governance initiatives and reducing bureaucratic red tape. Strengthening national security measures and modernising defense capabilities to address both internal and external threats.
Implementing targeted programs for the welfare and development of tribal and minority communities. By focusing on these areas, the BJP government aims to address existing challenges and work towards sustainable and inclusive growth. The success of these strategies will depend on effective implementation and the ability to adapt to changing political and economic landscapes.
Fostering stronger ties with global powers and neighbouring countries to enhance trade, security, and diplomatic relations.
Martin Luther King Jr. who was an activist, and political philosopher and one of the most prominent leaders in the US civil rights movement said, “Our lives begin to end the day we become silent about things that matter.” Thanks to Indian voters for speaking (read voting) when they felt that the government must not function the way it was during 2019 to 2024.
By Alok Sharma
(The content of this article reflects the views of writers and contributors, not necessarily those of the publisher and editor. All disputes are subject to the exclusive jurisdiction of competent courts and forums in Delhi/New Delhi only)
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