COUNTERBALANCING INDIA JOINTLY BY PAKISTAN AND CHINA POST OP. SINDOOR

O p SINDOOR, a significant and successful military action by India in response to the barbaric Pakistan sponsored terror attack at Pahalgam resulting in loss of 26 innocent lives, has altered the strategic landscape, necessitating re-evaluation of counterbalancing strategies by both Pakistan and China. The collusion between the two immediate neighbours of India due to various mutually vested interests is a reality. The covert and diplomatic support of China during the Indo – Pak conflict with equipment and technological resources, in the past, is not a hidden fact. So, now the possibility of activation of northern borders as also both Ladakh and North Eastern regions is a high possibility, sooner than later.

The focus on re-evaluation of counterbalancing their strategies by both our adversaries cannot be ruled out. There are umpteen geopolitical, military, psychological and sub-conventional tools that both Pakistan and China together can clandestinely leverage against India. A coordinated and synchronised approach striking the pressure points both in Ladakh and North Eastern region of India offers the most effective means to strategically divert India's current focus away from Pakistan. India, therefore, needs to proactively handle such an eventuality.

Contours of Present Conflicts

The advancing technology has steered a paradigm shift in contours of modern conflicts which encompasses varied dimensions of land, air, sea, space, information, cyber and psychological domains. This continuum bounds range of conflict prevention and post conflict activities based on the national interests. Today’s geopolitical environment of multi-polarity has evolved a dynamic canvas leading to thin blurring line between peace, low conflict and full-scale conflict. As we gravitate towards the ‘era of contested equality’ the character of conflicts is rapidly changing.  Due to the technological advancements, the kinetic facets of war fighting have enhanced their reach and the non-kinetic domain has attained greater significance due to higher dividends accrued.  The present conflicts are technology driven, meshed with non-contact and waged in a grey zone, where the distinction between peace is absolutely blurred. If the enemy chooses to engage in conventional combat, it will be coupled with hybrid domains such as cyber, information and non-contact application in addition to employment of long-range vectors resulting in massive destruction to the war waging capability of the adversary prior to its application of conventional forces. The same has been displayed by India in a very caliberated, focused and measured manner during Op SINDOOR against Pakistan.

The Significance of Op SINDOOR and its Strategic Implications

India's recently conducted Op SINDOOR reflects a resilient step in its counter-terrorism strategy, demonstrating its resolute resolve to project its military prowess and strike deep into Pakistani territory beyond Pakistan Occupied Jammu & Kashmir (PoJK) in case provoked by terror attacks.  Any terror attack on India will be treated as an ‘Act of War’ and responded accordingly. Therefore, standing robust, India launched a very calibrated, precise, measured and well-coordinated missile strikes utilizing precision guided munitions, drones and precision bombs targeting nine locations identified as key training and operational centres used for planning terrorists attacks not only against India but across the world. The targets included alleged headquarters and training camps of LeT, JeM and Hizbul Mujahideen in the areas of Bahawalpur, Muridke and Muzaffarabad.  India has claimed to have achieved significant success eliminating more than 100 terrorists including key operatives who were on India's most wanted list besides ensuring destruction of many terrorist camps. Pakistani Air Force bases too were significantly damaged including some in the important cities of Pakistan,thereby, proving its capability to strike deep with precision. However, Pakistan vehemently contested these claims asserting that the strikes have resulted in civilian casualties.

Op SINDOOR has significantly altered the strategic calculus by showcasing India's enhanced reach and precision strike capabilities, signalling a more assertive approach to counter-terrorism. The domestic reaction in India was largely supportive but the reactions on the international pedestal varied with some nations calling for restraint while others acknowledged India's right to self-defence. The Ministry of External Affair under the stewardship Mr Jaishankar, the External Affairs minister played it’s cards well gaining international support by and large. However, Pakistan tried to present a different narrative, claiming that India had launched 24 strikes across six locations resulting in 31 civilian deaths including women and children and injuries to hundreds of civilians. They also alleged that mosques and many residential areas were deliberately targeted. Following India's strikes, Pakistan claimed to have retaliated by shooting down multiple Indian fighter aircrafts including Rafale jets and destruction of S-400 missile system besides many Indian military installations through Op Bunyan-un-Marsoos. Thus, the starkly contrasting narratives surrounding the objectives and outcomes of Op SINDOOR underscore the critical role of ‘Information Warfare’ in modern conflicts making independent verification exceptionally challenging.

While India showcased its precision strike capabilities, but Pakistan's claims of downing Indian jets and targeting critical infrastructure, even if largely refuted by India, it suggests India's ongoing vulnerability to information warfare. This vulnerability is particularly concerning as it can sow confusion, undermine public trust and potentially impact national morale. While India’s western border was witnessing conflicts with projectiles, drones and air warfare, the Cyberspace of India was also attacked. Apart from defence PSUs and their MSME vendors, critical infrastructure like ports, airports, power grids, transportation services like Indian Railways and airlines, telecom players like BSNL, fintech platforms like UPI, digital wallets, stock exchanges and major Indian conglomerates with investments in infrastructure were allegedly attacked.

Himalayan Region and North Eastern Sector

Now let us look at the sharper side of the coin. The Himalayan and India's North Eastern region are critical geopolitical zones marked by complex and often contentious relationships between India, China and Pakistan. Historically, these regions have been the locus of significant border disputes, military conflicts and volatile Internal Security situation, shaping the strategic dynamics of South Asia. The lack of mutually recognized and demarcated boundaries, particularly the Line of Actual Control (LAC) between India and China and the Line of Control (LoC) between India and Pakistan, has created an environment of persistent tension and mistrust. This ambiguity allows for differing interpretations of territorial claims, leading to frequent incursions, standoffs and localized skirmishes. The enduring nature of these disputes provides a persistent source of tension that can be exploited by external actors seeking to counterbalance India's regional influence.   

India's Operational Readiness in Ladakh and North Eastern Sector

Op SINDOOR, while directly aimed at Pakistan also carries significant implications for India's broader military deployment and readiness, particularly in the strategically sensitive regions of Ladakh and the North Eastern Sector which cannot be ignored at this stage. In Ladakh, where India faces a persistent standoff with China along the LAC, Op SINDOOR might embolden India to adopt a more assertive posture and signal its readiness to respond decisively to any perceived aggression. The current deployment of troops in Eastern Ladakh already indicates India's focus on long-term military posturing against China. The success of Op SINDOOR could further reinforce this posture, potentially leading to the redeployment of additional resources and adoption of more proactive posture along the LAC.

Similarly, in the North Eastern Sector which has a long history of insurgencies sharing borders with China, Myanmar and Bangladesh, we cannot rule out the possibility of Pakistan in connivance with China attempting to revive dormant insurgencies in the region. India, therefore, need to maintain a high state of readiness across all our sensitive border regions, balancing our focus between the Western front including Ladakh and the North Eastern region. In addition, we need to keep a strict vigil in these border States on their Internal Security situation where the volatility can be exploited by both our adversaries in collusion.

China’s Collusion with Pakistan and It’s Implications

China's collusion with Pakistan raises concerns about a potential ‘two-front war’ including increased cyber threats, providing military aid, supporting Pakistan's narrative in international forums, providing covert technological support and spread of misinformation against India. China Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC), a major infrastructure project linking China and Pakistan and further to Red Sea from the Gwadar port port is viewed as a strategic initiative that further adds to China's influence in the region and potential support to Pakistan. India's military strategy is also affected as the collusion necessitates a stronger deterrence and dissuasion posture to prevent territorial losses and potential escalation. The India-Pakistan-China triangle is further complicated by the involvement of other regional and global actors, such as the United States and impact of it’s trade conflict in the region.

India,therefore, needs to be proactive in engaging with regional and global forums to manage the complex dynamics of the region and counter the challenges posed by the collusion. A ‘two-front war’ is a hanging threat as China and Pakistan may always coordinate their efforts to target India.

Sino-Pakistani Strategic Convergence

A key strategic option for both Pakistan and China to effectively counterbalance India involves synchronizing their actions to create simultaneous pressure points along India's Northern and Eastern fronts.  In a Indo-Pak conflict scenario, China may or may not get directly embroiled but will definitely support it’s partner Pakistan. Pakistan has a long history of involvement in supporting insurgent groups in India's Northeast and now duly supported by China may attempt to reignite separatist movements by appealing to ethnic identities reminding them of historical grievances against the Indian state. In Assam, groups like the United Liberation Front of Assam (ULFA) have historically sought a sovereign Assam and have had links with Pakistan in the past. The involvement of Islamist radical groups operating from Pakistani soil, such as Jaish-e-Mohammed (JeM) and Lashkar-e-Taiba (LeT), also presents a potential avenue for reviving insurgencies by tapping into religious motivations. The recent political upheaval in neighbouring Bangladesh, which has historically served as a haven for anti-India forces, will surely be exploited by Pakistan to revive insurgent activities in the Northeast. Pakistan's Inter-Services Intelligence (ISI) has been well known to be involved in facilitating narcotics trafficking through the NE States, using the proceeds to fund terror activities and further destabilize the region. With the increasing collusion between the ISI and Bangladesh's military intelligence, the DGFI, the subversive activities in the NE will definitely get orchestrated under the prevailing situation, if we are not proactive to contain it.

China's advanced surveillance capabilities, including satellite imagery, drone technology and cyber intelligence will always provide Pakistan critical information regarding Indian military deployments, troop movements and vulnerabilities along both the western and eastern borders. Reactivation of insurgent groups in the NE and border tensions with China in Ladakh,when India is heavily focused on a military standoff with Pakistan would, therefore, stretch India's military and political resources, forcing it to divide its attention and potentially affecting its response capabilities in both the regions. The mere threat of such synchronized pressure could also deter India from taking any assertive actions against either Pakistan or China or both. Development of such a situation will also lead to launching Information and Psychological Operations by both Pakistan and China exploiting our existing social, political and religious fault lines by spreading false or misleading information through social media, online news portals and even traditional media creating confusion, fear and distrust among the Indian population, thereby, complicating our government’s efforts to maintain dedicated focus on external security threats.

China's Strategic Options

China maintains a significant military presence and continues to develop its infrastructure along the LAC in Ladakh, signalling a long-term strategic interest in the region. Despite ongoing diplomatic engagements and some disengagement in specific areas, the PLA is yet to agree to a full de-escalation and withdrawal of troops. Satellite imagery and reports indicate largescale infrastructure developments with rapid construction of new roads, military camps, helipads, air fields and gun positions across all three sectors of the LAC, including strategically important areas like Yangtse in Arunachal Pradesh, Sikkim and Rongto Chu valley. This infrastructure development aims to enhance China's troop mobilization capabilities, improve logistics set up and offset India's tactical advantages in certain sectors. The construction of dual-purpose ‘Xiaokang’ border villages near the LAC further bolsters China's strategic presence and territorial claims. Moreover, the improved connectivity between Tibet and Xinjiang, including upgraded national highways and the planned Xinjiang-Tibet railway line through Aksai Chin, significantly enhances China's ability to rapidly deploy troops and equipment in the Ladakh region. This robust infrastructure network, coupled with the forward deployment of heavy weaponry, underscores China's intent to maintain a permanent and strong military posture along the LAC.

The People's Liberation Army (PLA) has been actively improving its high-altitude warfare capabilities and readiness for operations in regions like Ladakh and specific sectors in NE. Post the 2020 border clashes, China has been investing significantly in enhancing its troops resilience to the harsh conditions of the Tibetan plateau including its improved oxygen supplies, portable oxygen cylinders and oxygen therapy chambers to facilitate faster acclamitisation of troops. The PLA has also been conducting integrated high intensity live fire battle drills in rugged and snow clad high altitude  terrain near the Ladakh border, showcasing the combat readiness of lightweight Type 15 tanks, which are particularly suited for high altitude operations. Localized scuffles without involving non lethal weapons, may be adopted by China to keep India's military on high alert and commited on both fronts, thus restricting swinging of resources based on operational requirements.  The enhanced Tibet-Xinjiang connectivity and the expansion of the Karakoram Highway, a vital link under CPEC has already improved connectivity to areas near Ladakh facilitating quicker military logistics and troop movement.

Grey Zone Warfare

China possesses a significant arsenal of grey-zone tactics that it can potentially employ in Ladakh and Northeast to exert pressure on India without escalating to conventional warfare with a plausible deniability. Cyber warfare presents a potent tool for disrupting India's critical installations not only in   border regions but also in heartland, including power grids, communication networks and transportation systems thus denting the timely mobilisation of India. Misinformation campaigns can be launched to exploit existing internal fault lines within India, particularly ethnic tensions in the Northeast or religious sensitivities in Kashmir, aiming to propagate dissonance and divert India's focus from handling external aggression to internal mayhem. The insurgent groups are likely to be activated by China to keep our forces embroiled.

China may also increase patrol violations along the LAC, encroaching into Indian claimed territory and testing India's response mechanisms and binding its force commited on these fronts. Moreover, the forces deployed for counter insurgency operations cannot be relieved for other tasks, thus impinging adversely on operational capability. With such grey-zone tactics, China will try to maintain pressure on India without crossing the threshold of armed conflict, thereby diverting India’s focus away from Pakistan border, or rather create a conundrum by forcing it to deploy on more than one front.

Counterbalancing

We, therefore, need to be fully alert and prepared for a ‘Two Front War’ to proactively counter and contain the aggressive counterbalancing strategies jointly played by both Pakistan and China. In addition, our agencies dealing with Internal Security need to establish a robust mechanism to negate any internal turmoil. We need to ensure a coordinated diplomatic and information warfare strategies with nations who value transparency and neutrality and damage the international standing of both Pakistan and China by exposing their disinformation campaigns. The resurgence of freedom movement, particularly in Baluchistan, must be exacerbated by a more confrontational stance against Pakistan. China needs to be conveyed through diplomatic channel that potentially they have adequate repercussions for their own internal stability, particularly in regions like Xinjiang and Tibet, where it faces similar challenges. The strategy to exploit the fault lines in China should be explored to ensure China distances from the conflict. India being geo-strategically well poised to dominate the IOR must, therefore, dominate the important Sea Lines of Communication and Straits used by China as its ‘Maritime Trade Route’. Such ventures and domination will have severe economic implications on Chinese trade. QUAD and Indo Pacific Command must be activated in support of India challenging strategic interests of China in the South China Sea and Taiwan. India should venture for active exploration of international partners to apply pressure on China to ensure it distances from the conflict.

                India should further strengthen its potent capability to fight offensively in Multi Domain Operations scenario including Cyber and Space in addition to the three service verticals. Civil Military fusion and active participation of private players will go a long way further strengthening our capability. Therefore, under the unfolding security situation we have to pursue aggressively our counterbalancing strategies against our two adversaries.

Capability Building

                Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s impetus to ‘Self Reliance in Defence Sector’ has definitely carved a path for Atmanirbharta for the country which has converted India from the largest Importer of Defence Equipment to a major Exporter. The prowess and precision of Indian products have been demonstrated effectively during the execution of Op SINDOOR. The Akash Air Defence system proved its mettle and completely shattered the Pakistan’s air strikes. The Indian defence forces strategically utilized a combination of domestic and international space assets including ISRO's Carto sat and RISAT series alongside commercial data from Maxar. In the midst of the conflict, Indian Integrated Production and testing facility for Brahmos Missiles has been inaugurated at Lucknow on 11 May 2025 giving further impetus to our defence production capability. India needs to further steer production capability within the country and develop a firm standing in international Defence Equipment Market. In addition to the Defence Start Ups, India has already incorporated its big private players in the field to give a boost to own production rather than being dependent on any other country. The capability further requires a boost to tackle any collusive misadventure by the adversaries in future.
 

Conclusion

                Finally, Sino-Pak collusion is a reality and India needs to prepare for a Two Front War in addition to countering exploitation of Grey Zone Warfare by the adversaries. The balanced force disposition as also adequate availability of resources needs to be planned and placed by India so as to avoid switching fronts in the midst of a conflict. Exploration of Grey Zone tactics against China hitting its vulnerabilities and applying adequate pressure on the IOR impinging on the Sea Trade Routes will definitely provide an edge to India and keep China at bay from getting directly embroiled in the conflict. We also need to continue building our defence production capability towards achieving self-reliance and reduce dependency on other nations. A whole of nations approach is required to ensure that all facets of modern conflicts are adequately addressed.

By Lt Gen Abhay Krishna, Retd
(Lt Gen Abhay Krishna (retd), PVSM, UYSM, AVSM, SM(G), VSM, – is a former Army Commander of South Western, Eastern and Central Army Commands.)

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