COALITION ERA RETURNS :MODI’S HISTORIC THIRD TERM

The Election Commission of India (ECI) on 16th March 2024 announced the general elections to the 18th Lok Sabha as well as four states – Andhra Pradesh, Arunachal Pradesh, Odisha, and Sikkim. This indeed is a massive exercise in the largest democracy of the world, with over 97 crore eligible voters. The Lok Sabha polls, to elect 543 members, were held in seven phases starting on 19th April and ending on 1st June. Over 64 crore people, including 31 crore women cast their votes, nearly 1.5 crore personnel participated in this massive exercise. Notably, over 58% voting in Jammu and Kashmir is a matter of satisfaction for all of us. The exit polls on the evening of 1st June predicted massive majority for BJP led NDA. The share markets responded positively expecting a stable pro-reform government at the centre.  The counting of votes was done on 4th June to declare the winners. The results were contrary to the exit polls and the share markets crashed significantly. As the curtains closed on the Lok Sabha elections, the NDA looks set for a third term with 293 seats including BJP 240, TDP 16, and JDU 12. It is a big setback for the BJP as in previous two terms it had the clear majority of its own. The party got less than expected seats in UP, Rajasthan, Maharashtra, and West Bengal. The loss in Faizabad, the seat of Ram Mandir, which was consecrated just a few months before the elections, is seen as an ideological defeat for the party. Behind the defeat are the echoes of unemployment, inflation, land acquisition, and the talk of ‘change in the Constitution’. Now the BJP, which is 32 seats short of the magic figure of 272, will have to rely on allies, the TDP the JDU, and other allies who will bargain hard. They have given their written support and Modi is poised to form the government for a historic third consecutive term (after Pt. Nehru) with the BJP led NDA getting majority in the Lok Sabha not withstanding crushing losses in the Hindi heartland. The swearing in ceremony is likely to be held on 9th June with the expected presence of dignitaries such as the king of Bhutan, the President of Sri Lanka and the Prime Ministers of Nepal, Bangladesh, and Mauritius.

The BJP had set for itself an ambitious target of 370 seats (and 400+ for NDA) but this verdict is much about INDIA block’s story. Defying all the predictions, the opposition put up a strong fight and claimed 233 seats. The Congress almost doubled its 2019 tally, grabbing 99 seats, the highest in the alliance. The Samajwadi Party, which dislodged the BJP in UP won the highest number of 37 seats in the state. The other major contributors include TMC 29, DMK 22, SS(UBT) 9, NCP(SP) 7, CPI(M) 4, RJD 4, and AAP 3. The vote share of the BJP was 37.5% in 2019 with 303 seats and it was marginally down to 36.6% with 240 seats in 2024 elections. A 0.9% decline in votes resulted in 63 fewer seats. Whereas the Congress secured 19.5% votes and 52 seats in 2019, and 21.2% votes with 99 seats in 2024 elections, 1.7% increase in the votes resulted in 47 more seats.

The elections were also held for the four assemblies, in Arunachal Pradesh the BJP got the majority by winning 42 out of total 60 seats. In Odisha the BJP won 78 out of a total of 147 seats, ending Navin Patnaik led BJD’s long rule in the state. In Andhra Pradesh, Chandrababu Naidu led TDP won 135 in the house of 175 and the BJP secured 8 to form the NDA government in the state. The Sikkim Kranti Kari Morcha won 31 out of 32 seats, to form the government in Sikkim.

The BJP is no longer a single majority party, Modi is going to head a coalition government and the views of all the supporting partners need to be accommodated. It will be better if a common minimum program, acceptable to all, is made and implemented. The good work done in lthe ast decade should be taken forward, the reforms process must continue for the smooth functioning of the system and to attract more FDI, as India is on track to become the third largest economy in the next few years. There must be zero tolerance on corruption and cases pending in the court should be decided expeditiously. Reservation policy for SC, ST, OBC, and for economically weaker section must continue as per the Constitution. The growth should be inclusive, every poor person to be helped regardless of caste and religion. The freebies culture needs a review as it is detrimental to the economy, for example the metro in Hyderabad is becoming unsustainable because the women in the city travel free in the state buses. The digitization program has been a great success and needs to be advanced further. Dissatisfaction among the people about National Pension Scheme and the Agniveer Yogna, needs reform, not withdrawal. The plan to bid for 2036 Olympics should be kept alive.

The Election Commission has done a commendable job by conducting the elections efficiently. However, a few suggestions for improvement include considering climatic conditions (as it is too hot in April and May), shortening the duration of elections, and avoiding polling on Fridays and Mondays to prevent extended weekends when people might travel.

Overall, this has been a great election giving happiness to all. The BJP is happy that it is the single largest party and has won more seats than the entire opposition parties and forming the government, the Congress is happy that it has got nearly double the seats compared to the previous elections, the regional parties are happy to get their support back. The ECI must be happy that there are no allegations regarding EVMs. Overall it is a great victory of democracy.

It is hoped that the new government will deliver as per the aspirations of the people and no attempt will be made to divide the society on the lines of caste or religion, and the opposition parties will provide constructive co-operation.

By Manoj Dubey
Principal (Retd.)
Delhi Public Schools

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