Victory of the party in three big states of Madhya Pradesh,Chhattisgarh and Rajasthan, consecration of Ram Lalla idol at Ayodhya and formation of NDA government in Bihar under Nitish Kumar, the BJP in Himachal Pradesh is eyeing a hat-trick in 2024 parliamentary polls. The party had won all four seats of Kangra, Hamirpur ,Mandi and Shimla in 2014 and 2019 under the Modi wave, but had lost Mandi in the 2021 bypoll to the Congress.
The buzz is not all about the BJP fortifying its grounds quite in advance and BJP National President J P Nadda, who hails from the state keeping close tabs on the party's poll plans but also how the Modi factor will favour when the country goes to the polls under Prime Minister Narendra Modi's leadership.
But, the upcoming elections are not just for the BJP ‘s score-board ,these are also a crucial test for the Congress’s leadership that emerged from the 2022 state assembly polls. The 2024 elections are, indeed, an acid test for Chief Minister Sukhwinder Singh Sukhu,60, who brings in a generational change in the Congress till now dominated by towering leader Virbhadra Singh. Singh died in 2021.
Sukhu and Virbhadra Singh have never been on one –page. Though Virbhadra Singh’s wife Pratibha Singh, a sitting MP, is state congress president and their son Vikramaditya Singh,a cabinet-rank minister, Sukhu has set-out his own rules to governance, mostly sidelining Pratibha Singh and son,even those who been close to former CM.
Sukhu's rise on the political top political horizon is his own grounding and organisational skills.He had been a firebrand youth leader and later PCC president for seven years much against wishes of Virbhadra Singh.
In 2022, the Congress had fought the elections under joint leadership with no Chief Ministerial face. The Congress had bagged 40 seats and got 43.9% of the votes while the BJP could retain only 25 seats in the 68-member assembly against its earlier tally of 44 yet secured 43.5% of the votes. The challenge to turn the tables on the BJP in the forthcoming Lok Sabha polls is huge for Sukhu and Congress party.
Thus, as senior journalist Prakash Lohumi admits “forthcoming Lok Sabha polls are a litmus test for Sukhu’s neo-leadership since he enjoys close proximity to Rahul Gandhi and his sister Priyanka Gandhi. Sukhu ,infact, is in the Chief Ministerial position because of their backing otherwise Pratibha Singh too had a powerful stake to the CM’s post.Now, policies and programmes of the government and how he delivered on the Congress’s poll guarantees, will matter ”
Nadda’s activism
Making an early move, J P Nadda has already visited Shimla and attended a meeting of the party’s core committee, called primarily to gear-up for the Lok Sabha polls. Nadda was given a rousing welcome –‘abhinandan samaroh’ in his honour. His roadshow at Solan drew a massive crowd.
Admits Randhir Sharma, BJP’s chief spokesman “while abhinandan samaroh was to energise the party cadres and give the Congress message about the BJP strength. Basic underlying purpose of the visit was to set the roadmap for the Lok Sabha poll. Nadda ji actually came to address the core committee of the BJP in Shimla to work-out early strategies for the elections”.
Dharamshala has also become the next destination for Nadda to give a push to the party’s preparedness in the state. The party sources even admit that Nadda plans more such visits in the coming weeks.
Nadda,during his last month's visit to Shimla told the state unit of the BJP to prepare a panel of names for probable candidates for all the four Lok Sabha constituencies without any delay and submit the same to the party high command in the next few days. He is learnt to have given examples of Rajasthan state assembly polls where candidates having been named early helped the BJP immensely.
He says the BJP is targeting an increase of 10 percent vote share in the Parliamentary polls as compared to 2019 and 2014 when the party had swept all the four Lok Sabha seats.
Of four Lok Sabha seats,which the BJP had won in 2019, one i.e. Mandi is currently represented by Pratibha Singh, who had won the seat in 2012 bypoll after demise of Ram Swaroop Sharma, a two-time MP. The BJP is quite confident of overturning the scene in Mandi though it has not opened its cards on fielding a new face against Pratibha Singh, who is sure to return to the contest.
While Anurag Thakur, union minister for information and broadcasting ,who presents Hamirpur for the fourth consecutive term, remains the party ‘s best bet. He represents a strong political legacy since being son of two-time Chief Minister Prem Kumar Dhumal .
Congress heavyweights viz Sukhwinder Singh Sukhu and Deputy Chief Minister Mukesh Agnihotri are dominating the scenes in Hamirpur. It’s here Sukhu will face the biggest test of his leadership. Who is going to be Sukhu’s choice for the ticket to contest against Anurag Thakur will determine the party’s fate at this politically hot seat.
Challenges for the Cong
Major challenge to him in Hamirpur is two-time party MLA Rajinder Rana—who had defeated BJP heavyweight Prem Kumar Dhumal in 2017 assembly polls. Dhumal’s defeat at Sujanpur impacted his Chief Ministerial ambition as he was BJP’s face for the top post, which later went to five-time MLA Jai Ram Thakur. Rana eyed for a cabinet berth in the incumbent government but Sukhu has chosen to keep him at bay. This has surely not gone well with Rana.He has also joined hands with former minister and Dharamshala MLA Sudhir Sharma,also denied cabinet berth.
The party, knowing that it has not been able to implement the poll guarantees, is likely to highlight how the centre has denied appropriate help to the state which suffered heavily due to natural calamities during monsoon. Neither the centre declared the situation as “national disaster” nor gave any special package. The sitting BJP MPs and MLAs also did not back the state government to get central help.
Yet, the challenge to itself is rift between the PCC president Pratibha Singh and Chief Minister Sukhu. The party organization has almost collapsed and power shift is complete with Sukhu,who has left Pratibha Singh sulking on offering some of the key government posts to the party workers. Sukhu,so far, has given several plum positions to his own men, few with cabinet ranks. This has also made several sitting MLAs unhappy and bitter. The situation is likely to badly jolt the congress prospects.
Yet some analysts say the emergence of Sukhu as the new leader in the state to fill in the vacuum created by Virbhadra Singh’s demise, is a new phenomenon. As Chief Minister, he has tried to build his own base.Sukhu even has made discreed bid to cut down the influence of Virbhadra Singh's family in the governance and also party. The Lok Sabha polls are rather a new test for him as he will be the party to the polls first-time as Chief Minister.
The Congress has started an inhouse exercise to pre-empt the BJP. The party has set-up a 20-member committee to draw-up its roadmap for the Parliamentary polls. A meeting of the party leaders from the state was also held in Delhi to seek views of the party leaders on the poll strategy.
The BJP got 69.11 per cent votes in the 2019 Lok Sabha polls, winning all the four seats. The Congress secured 27.30 per cent votes.
The BJP in Himachal Pradesh has undergone organizational reshuffling ahead of the 2024 polls, which has sparked discontent within the party.Yet, its sole game plan is to seek votes in Modi’s name .A study suggests that assembly polls may not always indicate results for the Lok Sabha elections; it will depend on the BJP’s effective strategies. How the Congress can fight back will determine the poll outcome.
By Ashutosh Sharma from Shimla
(The content of this article reflects the views of writers and contributors, not necessarily those of the publisher and editor. All disputes are subject to the exclusive jurisdiction of competent courts and forums in Delhi/New Delhi only)
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