The just concluded U.S election reminds me of greatest epic of the world, “Mahabharat” where great people like Bhishma, Dronacharya, Karn were fighting for the wrong king, got defeated and lost their lives. lost contestant Kamla Harris seems to be a better human being who failed diplomatically:
• Instigating Ukraine to fight with Russia.
• Playing foul to democracy in Bangladesh. (leaders are supposed to take risk and speak for the victims)
• On removal of 370 Harris said: “We have to remind the Kashmiris that they are not alone in the world. We are keeping a track on the situation. There is a need to intervene if the situation demands.” An unwarranted comment and U.S has no power to intervene.
The books ‘The Truth We Hold’ by Kamla and ‘The art of comeback’ by Trump speaks a lot. While Kamla listened to “to be young, gifted and black” the best song written by Aretha Frankline to inspire down trodden. Trump on the other hand has chosen the quotes:
• You can’t make an omelette without breaking eggs.
• Victory at all cost, victory in spite of all terror, victory however hard the road may be; for without victory there is no survival.
It is not strange that Kamla Harris chose to be a prosecutor and the breaking egg syndrome has led Trump to face prosecutions time and again. The passion to succeed has driven Trump to survive all the assaults. He has shown skills to negotiate challenges to beat the competition time and again. It seems he has mastered the traits of ‘Sam’, ‘Dam’, ‘Dand’ ‘Bhed’ of Indian diplomacy i.e motivating, rewarding, punishing and dividing. When he says America first, he is able to connect with his voters.
The million-dollar question is, why public chose him twice ignoring Hillary Clinton and Kamla Harris? One can find the answer in the book written by Hillary Clinton, “What happened”. She wrote,” Trump has taken war on truth to another level, if he stood up tomorrow and said that earth is flat, his counsellor Kellyanne Conway just might go on Fox News and defend it as alternate fact”. This is operating from position of weakness. You cannot win election if you expect the opponent to be fair. On the other hand, trump talked about victory at all cost, we can understand that the rivals could not match Trump’s passion to win. Despite being a novice in politics, he used his business acumen and network to beat the full-time politicians. His opponents are politicians who have grown up taking up social causes while Trump is a professional businessman.
What the world can expect from Trump as president of America.
Republicans have taken the Senate majority and are fighting to keep control of the House. It will help Trump to implement his strategies more efficiently. If one studies his previous four year as president and the promises, he made in this campaign one can make out following inferences:
• to push through tax cuts.
• to raise spending
• hike in tariffs, which amounts to a large tax rise it is unavoidable else deficit will mount.
• Tough rules will be enforced to control immigration.
• May try to end ongoing wars.
One can see that as a politician Trump is focused and has his priorities are clear.
What will be the consequences?
Here the deficit would be improved by hike in tariffs as discussed above, amounting to a large tax rise. The trump administration will have to answer the question related to the logic of the rise in Treasury yields.
The effect on the currency could be partially offset by tariffs on U.S. exports. It has the potential for a full-blown trade war of escalating import taxes. Here the rest of the world would be bigger losers than the U.S as the U.S. runs a big trade deficit and because its exports are led by oil and aircraft parts. No country will like to buy elsewhere as there are few choices and the U.S excellence in R&D leave little scope for bargaining.
The proposed rise in tariffs may Boost the dollar.
Foreign currencies have to adjust down to keep prices stable in dollar terms, the same after adding tariffs, as happened in 2018 when Trump raised tariffs on China. If he goes ahead with across-the-board tariffs—plus 60%, the dollar should get a bigger boost.
This approach could mean fresh economic pressures, with new tariffs and export restrictions. It will help Indian exports to U.S as cheaper export from other countries will become costlier but the rupee may feel more pressure on down side.
China which hides more than what it discloses has given controlled reaction to Trump’s victory. The response has been tempered but cautious, Chinese policymakers must be bracing for renewed tensions. They will be closely watching for signs of increased tariffs or sanctions to weigh the implications of another Trump term. The U.S, China relations are already complex and competitive.
The impact on the economy due to Trump’s immigration policies.
If implemented the promise to deport millions of immigrants who entered the country illegally would be a major supply constraint. It may reverse the cycle that has helped to cool the jobs market and reassured the Federal Reserve that inflation is back under control. Indian readers can compare it with their experience with Bangladeshi immigrants whom everybody wants to throw out yet they merge with the main stream as the public is interested in cheap labour, ignoring the internal security issues or the change in demography.
Trump as president and Indian concerns?
India has to manage on two fronts:
• Diplomacy.
• Economic policies.
under Biden, the relationship between the world’s two most populous democracies has come under increasing strain. The U.S opted to support Khalistani extremist in the name of freedom of speech. Indian consulate offices were attacked. Wanted terrorists are getting shelter, instead of streamlining the procedure which grant asylum on account of alleged racial discrimination, United States federal prosecutors have filed charges against Nikhil Gupta, an Indian national, alleging his involvement in a conspiracy with an Indian government official to carry out the assassination of Pannun.
While Minister for external affair S. Jai Shankar has expressed his concern related to attacks on Indian consulates etc.
“He also raised the issue of an attack on the Indian consulate in San Francisco with the US and the need for action against the perpetrators and said that as a democracy, India did not require lessons in freedom of speech and understood well when the line was crossed to incite violence and that freedom was abused’. (HT Oct 01, 2023 )
Instead of responding, US administration opted to breath fire on the alleged murder plot against Khalistani Gurpatwant Singh Pannun, India expects that the US's emphasis on the case reduces under Trump as president.
Economic policies.
In his previous term as president, Trump was very harsh on countries exporting to U.S. It has imposed tariff hike leading to retaliations. This time also president-elect sees China as the "toughest" and India as "tough”. If he maintains this stand and imposes higher tariff hike on China then India, then we may get benefitted. It is easier to say but in real terms it takes lot of hard work and negotiation skills to manage unpredictable leader.
India’s export sector including manufacturing, could gains due to Trump’s policy on imposing tariffs on Chinese products. , according to data from the Centre for Monitoring Indian Economy (CMIE). India’s exports to the US have shown good growth, reaching $77.53 billion
A continuation of these tariffs could benefit sectors such as auto parts, solar equipment, and chemicals.
Trump’s fossil fuel-friendly policies may help Indian oil and gas companies.
During Trump first term India was able to get defence equipment and technologies which were under restriction. Key agreements between India and the USA included the Communications Compatibility and Security Agreement (COMCASA), Basic Exchange and Cooperation Agreement (BECA), and Industrial Security Annex (ISA). These agreements enhanced military cooperation, intelligence sharing, and defence technology collaboration.
Indian Financial security markets may get a breather from Foreign institutional investors (FIIs), who offloaded shares worth Rs. 1 lakh crore since October 1, 2024, if Trump’s victory stabilises global market sentiment. This impact on Indian stocks will largely depend on Trump’s policies influence over the global and domestic economies in the coming months
Why to have such high hopes from Trump administration?
Economic times in its article dated 7th November published the headline,
“Will Trump's comeback reignite his war on the 'deep state'?”
the article is based on the comments made during election campaign. It can be summarised as:
Joe Biden endorsed Vice President Kamala Harris as the Democratic party's presidential nominee, Tulsi Gabbard, a Democratic Congresswoman endorsed Trump and joined the Republican party, called Harris the "new figurehead for the deep state" as mentioned above Kamla Harris could not develop courage to take care of the sentiments of her own party members. It again reminds us the futility of so many good people sitting the court of Duryodhana when they fail to protect the modesty of a helpless woman. The silence observed on atrocities being faced by Hindus in Bangladesh is an eye opener.
President-elect Donald Trump is expected to wage a war on the American deep state, by which he means a shadow network of bureaucrats, especially those in the FBI and the CIA, who secretly work in collaboration with private entities, foreign powers. India has been a victim for past 4 years and benefit a lot if the plan is executed.
Can India move to a state where change in global leadership scenario affect it minimal?
United states and China represent two extremes of the world trade spectrum. World buy American product because of quality and inventions while it buys from China because of affordability and bulk supply. India is in a sweet spot if it exploits its position of a consumer as well as manufacture. For example, India is the world’s largest importer of arms amounting to approximately 10 percent of total imports. The made in India campaign has resulted in many such interventions in the field of arms and ammunition, lithium-ion batteries, solar panels, wind energy, mobile set manufacturing etc, today it is exporting arms to over 90 countries. Quality research, collaboration with the industry can do wonders. It has made its mark in medical tourism. Education is another area where it can lead the world. Trade is one area where it can create a space, however the bigger issue is terrorism.
It has been a victim of terrorism, infiltration and insurgency. What India needed is the support in eliminating the support system outside India. We were suffering from the network established in neighbouring countries. Myanmar, Bangladesh have restrained these activities, Pakistan was cornered using the international treaties on terror as well surgical strikes. Canada, Britain and Australia are showing sign of new areas of threat. Under Biden presidentship the so-called deep state was encouraging anti India narrative. It is high time that highly efficient MEA Sri S Jaishankar turn the table on these outfits using diplomacy in new regime.
Way forward…
There are no permanent friends or enemies in the politics. The great statesman Chanakya has defined the art of diplomacy as winning a war without bloodshed,
And the most effective diplomats are those who can find common ground even in the most contentious of situations. Donald trump has expressed his intentions very clearly, his stand on tariff seems to be hurtful while his stand on eliminating terror mechanism is straight forward and clear. The Indian think tank will be on toes to extract the best out of U.S-India relations in next four years. There are common grounds like QUAD, to work for. India is key to the US' ability to create a stable balance of power in the larger Indo-Pacific and at this point of time, it needs partners like India to shore up its sagging credibility in the region in face of Chinese onslaught."
Over and above, Gallup’ annual World Affairs survey 2023, shows India is perceived by Americans as their sixth favourite nation in the world, with 70% of American viewing India favourably. The number of Indians living in US may not be very high but their influence is definitely high. With thinking of the citizens of two countries being in harmony, diplomacy has a bright spot to operate upon.
By RAKESH KUMAR
(The content of this article reflects the views of writers and contributors, not necessarily those of the publisher and editor. All disputes are subject to the exclusive jurisdiction of competent courts and forums in Delhi/New Delhi only)
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