The Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP)-led National Democratic Alliance (NDA) is projected to retain power in Assam with an even stronger mandate under Chief Minister Himanta Biswa Sarma, according to a recent opinion poll conducted by Matrize. The survey suggests that the NDA could secure between 92 and 102 seats in the 126-member Assam Legislative Assembly, signaling a comfortable and possibly expanded majority.
The NDA in Assam comprises the Bharatiya Janata Party, Asom Gana Parishad, and Bodoland People's Front. If the projections hold, the alliance would significantly outperform its rivals, consolidating its dominance in the northeastern state.
In contrast, the Congress-led opposition alliance, known as the Asom Sonmilito Morcha (ASM), is expected to trail far behind, with an estimated tally of 22 to 32 seats. The bloc includes the Indian National Congress along with regional and left parties such as the Assam Jatiya Parishad, Raijor Dal, CPI(M), APHLC, and CPI (ML) Liberation. Meanwhile, other parties and independents are projected to secure between four and seven seats.
The Assam Assembly elections are scheduled to be held in a single phase on April 9, with results to be declared on May 4, alongside key elections in other states and union territories. The contest in Assam is shaping up to be a direct battle between the NDA and the Congress-led alliance.
The BJP, which has governed Assam since 2016, is aiming for a third consecutive term. Despite never achieving a simple majority on its own, the party has successfully formed governments through strategic alliances. Under Sarma’s leadership, the NDA appears to have strengthened its electoral footing, as reflected in the current projections.
On the other hand, the Congress is striving to reclaim its lost ground in a state it once dominated for over a decade under former Chief Minister Tarun Gogoi. The party ruled Assam from 2001 to 2016 before being unseated by the BJP.
Looking back, the 2016 Assembly elections marked a turning point, with the BJP emerging as the single largest party with 60 seats and forming the government in alliance with the AGP and BPF. In 2021, the BJP maintained its position with 60 seats, though the NDA’s overall tally saw a slight dip. Nonetheless, the alliance retained power, and Himanta Biswa Sarma took over as Chief Minister.
As Assam heads into another crucial electoral battle, the latest opinion poll indicates that the NDA not only retains public support but may also expand its political dominance in the state, setting the stage for a decisive mandate.
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