The month of June is quite unbearable; hot winds blow through the deserted roads and lanes of Lutyens Delhi, whose inhabitants prefer to stay indoors for better part of the day. However, the events of preceding week sent political temperature of the capital city soaring hotter than the prevailing weather.
On June 12, firebrand Chief Minister of West Bengal and TMC Chief Mamata Banerjee landed in Delhi after receiving a personal invitation from UPA Chief Sonia Gandhi for a pow-wow on nomination of UPA’s presidential candidate. No other leader of UPA’s various parties was shown such courtesy, at least publically. Naturally, Mamata with airs of a kingmaker came to Delhi and had a warm-up meeting with SP Chief Mulayam Singh to flaunt recent bonhomie and solidarity between the two regional parties, whose collective might (10.6 per cent votes of the electoral college) could be a game-changer in the presidential election.
Mamata’s June 13 meeting with Sonia Gandhi was brief and she lost no time in spilling the beans to media persons outside 10 Janpath by revealing that Finance Minister Pranab Mukherjee and Vice President Hamid Ansari were Sonia’s choice for the top post. Same evening after a meeting with Mulayam Singh, both leaders in a joint press conference trashed Sonia’s choices and coined the names of former President APJ Abdul Kalam, Prime Minister Manmohan Singh and former Lok Sabha Speaker Somnath Chatterjee. Mention of Prime Minister Manmohan Singh created a flutter in the political circles and Congress was livid. Little did Mamata realise at this moment that it was a game plan and these names were just a red herring to read the political weather. Mamata and weather balloons have something in common—both rise quickly, attain point of no return and soon lose utility.
WRONG MOVE ON POLITICAL CHESS LEADS TO ISOLATION
Mamata Banerjee’s efforts to form a political axis with Samajwadi Party Chief Mulayam Singh Yadav to put pressure on the Congress to desist from nominating Pranab Mukherjee have backfired, although after returning to Kolkata she declared: “The game is not over yet. It is still on.”
The State Congress has gone all out to attack the Trinamool chief Mamata Banerjee, while the Congress legislators wrote to Sonia Gandhi for permission to walk out of the state ministry. When contacted by Uday India, Manas Bhuniya, Congress MLA and Irrigation Minister, West Bengal, said: “Mamata Banerjee’s rejecting the UPA candidate for presidential candidate is an unexpected move and we are expecting high command decision to take further action.” Trinamool Congress leader and State Minister for Urban Development Firhad Hakim rebuffed by saying: “If you feel like, you can leave the government any time, we have the full support of the people of Bengal.” The Congress both at the centre and in the state has taken this as a prestige fight against Trinamool Congress.
This is not a news to those who know Mamata Banerjee’s political history of three decades. She uses pressure tactics and stubbornness rather than going for a cool logic. In 1990s, when she was in the Congress Party, over her difference in opinion with Somen Mitra, the then President of Pradesh Congress Committee, she broke away with the party to form the Trinamool Congress. She supported and was part of NDA in 1998 and 2006. The Congress had to face the same experience again before 2001 Assembly polls and later in 2009 Lok Sabha and 2011 Assembly elections. She no doubt enjoys the mass support base, for which she shows her arrogance and tries to keep words in her own terms. This time also she tried to show that she can influence the election of the highest office of the country by keeping the trump card with her, but had to face badly for the wrong move.
By Joydeep Dasgupta from Kolkata
Her June 14 meeting with Mulayam Singh at latter’s residence was not so cordial. No joint press conference was held. Nevertheless, Mamata informed waiting media persons that APJ Abdul Kalam was their (SP and TMC) favourite candidate. What transpired between Mamata and Mulayam during the meeting would perhaps never be known, but it is apparent that wrestler-turned-politician from Etawah did a volte face by excusing himself out of the political move that both were trying to devise less than 24 hours before. On June 15, Sonia Gandhi moved in for a kill by formally announcing the name of Pranab Mukherjee as UPA’s presidential candidate. Signalling formal break-up of bonhomie with Mamata, Mulayam lost no time in extending SP’s support to Pranab Mukherjee. More support from the UPA and non-UPA parties poured in. In the recent past Mamata may not have found herself so lonely and deserted in the ranks of the UPA.
Red-faced Mamata returned to Kolkata and took to Facebook to garner support for elusive and non-commital Kalam. With Kalam formally declining the offer and NDA still undecided on presidential candidate, Mamata found herself in a political quagmire and once again took to shadow boxing by brandishing resignation threat of TMC ministers from the UPA cabinet.
Ms Banerjee’s relations with UPA have been less than cordial due to her partisan attitude and abrasive manners. Her political vision is myopic, which cannot see beyond West Bengal and TMC. Mamata’s list of political misdemeanours is very long. In September 2011, she embarrassed the nation by opposing Teesta river water sharing accord with Bangladesh, when she refused to accompany Prime Minister to Dacca for inking the deal. Mamata’s party colleague and Union Railway Minister Dinesh Trivedi lost his job because he had proposed hike in rail fares in the Rail Budget 2012-13. Mamata’s protégé Mukul Roy, who in July 2011 as MoS of Railways had the temerity to disobey the Prime Minister by not visiting a railway accident site, replaced Dinesh Trivedi.
The Royal Raisina Race
DADA & DIDI WON, CONGRESS LOST
The departure of Pranab Mukherjee, popularly known as Pranab Da or Dada, from the Union Cabinet to the Rashtrapati Bhavan is a jolt to the Congress Party. First because Congress has not been able to get the name of any such person who could be exclusively known as the yes man as some of the previous presidential candidates were chosen by the party. Dada known as party’s conscience keeper would definitely keep his conscience alive while discharging his duties as the Rashtrapati and there are hardly any chances of him being tilting the balance in favour of any party if the occasion arises for taking any crucial decision.
Secondly, the only troubleshooter of the Congress would not be any more available to Sonia Gandhi or to the Prime Minister Manmohan Singh. Mr Singh can’t depend upon senior leaders like P Chidambaram who has been criticised by the party’s national office-bearers for his failiure on the Maoist affairs and more so when Chidambaram said that he did not know about an important appointment of his spouse on a government legal body. Similiarly, the Defence Minister AK Antony has been embarrassed, thanks to the affairs of paintings made by his spouse, and purchased by International Airports Authority (IAA) at very high prices. The other important bureaucrat enjoying the confidence of PM has already become laughing material owing to his statement which says that the daily earnings of a person less than thirty rupees is sufficient to earn the livelihood of the family.
So the Congress has gained nothing since it lost his man for all seasons and also failed to choose the yes man for the Rashtrapati Bhavan. Dada is a real gainer since he is getting the office of President after losing many good occasions to become the Prime Minister. The one was when he could not get the chance to hold the office of PM after the sudden demise of Mrs Indira Gandhi just because of the manoeuvre by Arun Nehru. This might not have been painful for Dada because the person chosen for the office was Rajiv Gandhi. His claim was again ignored when Manmohan Singh was chosen for Prime Minister’s post by the Congress President Sonia Gandhi. As if this was not enough, Manmohan Singh got another term. Naturally, the wounded seniormost stalwart of the party now could nurture the hope of becoming the President, which is going to be fulfilled .
Mamata Banerjee, the Chief Minister of West Bengal, is really a gainer. Mamata’s annoyance with Dada was that the Union Government did not accept her demand of an extra package either to waive or postpone the payment of interest on debt taken by the earlier Left government which was accumulated in thousands of crores. The Left government left the debt as a gift to Mamata government, which is more than the whole budget of the state. In fact, she got a bankrupt state from the Marxist regime and being an ally of UPA she hoped of getting some kind of special help.
Surprisingly, Dada, a Bengali babu himself, could not do anything for his own state just to avoid any controversy or criticism by other states, particularly at this juncture. The departure of Dada from the active politics would create a vaccum in the Bengal Congress which will make Mamata stronger. A lot of Congressmen almost at all the levels would be interested to join the TMC in the absence of any Congress leader in Bengal.
So far as the opposition is concerned, it could not expect a better candidate than Pranab Da from the Congress party, more so when there has been a practice to try to choose a person of tested pro-Congress feelings.
By Vijay Khaira
Mamata Banerjee has a penchant for populism and political opportunism. She has doggedly opposed Land Acquisition Bill, FDI in retail and aviation sectors, Pension Bill and Lokpal Bill. Her aversion to foreign direct investments has stalled major investment opportunities in the country and her own state, whose effects are showing in the form of downturn in the growth rate.
In 2001, when TMC was a constituent of NDA, image conscious Mamata, anticipating a landslide victory for TMC in West Bengal assembly elections severed relations with NDA over Tehlka expose, leaving beleaguered NDA embarrassed. After the drubbing that her party received on the hustings she was back in NDA’s fold in 2004. But in 2009, she forged alliance with Congress to fight parliamentary elections in West Bengal.
From 2009 to 2011, Mamata Banerjee’s political fortunes rose. TMC bagged 19 seats in 2009 parliamentary elections and in 2011, it uprooted 34-year-old Marxist rule in West Bengal by winning 184 assembly seats in 294-seat legislature. Mamata became the chief minister - first woman to do so. Time magazine in 2012 included her in the list of ‘100 Most Influential People in the World’. In May 2012 US Sectretary of State Hillary Clinton, on her way back from Bangladesh met her in Kolkata ostensibly to discuss Teesta waters and FDI in retail sector.
After taking over as chief minister of a debt-ridden state with poor infrastructure and stagnant economy, Mamata Banerjee realised that the state needed infusion of funds in the form of Central grants and investments to recover from the economic paralysis. Her demand for an economic package for the state and three-year moratorium from debt servicing has been pending at the Union Finance Minister’s desk for a year now. On June 11, West Bengal Finance Minister Amit Mitra had to return empty-handed after inconclusive deliberations with Union Finance Minister. This grudge perhaps impelled her to oppose Pranab Mukherjee’s candidature, throwing all cautions to wind.
What makes Mamata Banerjee so haughty? Political power and her ability to deflate UPA’s ego give her that distinct swagger and audacity. Mamata has been in office for over a year and there has been very little change in the state of affairs in West Bengal. People are getting disenchanted This makes her nervous. Of late she has also become intolerant, which was evident from the arrest of Jadavpur University professor for circulating her cartoon and stomping out from a TV session, where she had called the audience ‘Maoists’.
Having risen from a political activist to chief minister Mamata Banerjee wants to control everything herself. It is not very uncommon to see chief minister doing crowd management during rallies. Her meddling with grassroots level affairs has earned her a sobriquet the dictator. She has not been able to control her party cadres from indulging in violence and intimidation. Over centralisation of business of the state and the party is proving to be her nemesis. By indulging in micro-management she does not have time to grasp the nuances of macro issues which will affect the development of West Bengal in the long-term.
What are the options for Mamata Banerjee? One, she can mend fence with Congress by supporting Pranab Mukherjee and try to get a decent economic package for the state and concentrate on development. Two, TMC can sever relations with Congress at the Centre and state. This may not precipitate a political crisis at the Centre because of outside support of SP and BSP available to the UPA government. Three, TMC can join the NDA, whose cohesion is under severe strain due to infighting.
Mamata Banerjee does not enjoy the same clout in the UPA, for her being with the UPA by lying low and concentrating on West Bengal would be the way out.
By Colonel (Retd) US Rathore
(The author is a threat and risk analyst and defence and security expert)
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