The India Meteorological Department (IMD) issued a significant warning on Sunday, forecasting above-normal rainfall for the month of September. This prediction raises the alarm for potential widespread disruption across northern India, including an increased risk of landslides, cloudbursts, and flash floods in the already saturated Himalayan region.
According to the weather bureau, rainfall over the next two months is expected to exceed 109% of the long-period average (LPA). This comes on the heels of an exceptionally wet August, where northwest India, encompassing Delhi and the entire Himalayan belt, recorded its highest rainfall in 23 years.
The IMD has cautioned that the upcoming weeks could bring “episodic occurrences” of extreme weather events, putting state governments and disaster management authorities on high alert.
A Trail of Recent Devastation
The forecast is particularly concerning given the recent devastation witnessed across the Himalayan states. The month of August brought widespread destruction to Himachal Pradesh, Uttarakhand, Jammu & Kashmir, and Punjab. Landslides, road collapses, and severe flooding displaced thousands of residents and caused significant damage to infrastructure.
Notable tragedies included a major flood event in Dharali village, Uttarakhand, and a series of cloudbursts in Jammu and Kashmir that wiped out homes and roads. The intensity of the rainfall was staggering, with Udhampur in Jammu recording 630 mm of rain in a single day (August 27). Similarly, Raigad in Maharashtra saw 440 mm (August 20), and the ghat areas of Madhya Maharashtra received 570 mm, highlighting the erratic and intense nature of the monsoon this year.
Record-Breaking Rainfall Patterns
The data underscores the anomaly. August 2023 saw northwest India receive 265 mm of rain, its highest since 2001 and the 13th highest since records began in 1901. The southern peninsula also recorded its third-highest August rainfall since 2001.
The IMD attributes these intense patterns to five active weather systems that created "vigorous monsoon conditions" throughout the month. Cumulatively, from June 1, India has received 743.1 mm of rainfall, which is 6.1% above the LPA. However, this distribution has been highly uneven:
Northwest India: +26.7%
Central India: +8.6%
Southern Peninsula: +9.3%
East and Northeast India: -17.8%
Elevated Risks and the Road Ahead
With heavy rain now expected to lash the Indo-Gangetic plains and central India, the IMD has warned of flooding in downstream areas. Rivers originating in the Himalayas, particularly in Uttarakhand, could swell rapidly, threatening towns and cities along their paths.
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