In a crushing jolt to Congress, Gaurav Gogoi loses election from Jorhat seat in Assam. Trends from the Assam Assembly election counting indicate a strong lead for the Himanta Biswa Sarma-led Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP), which has already crossed the majority mark in the 126-member House. According to initial figures, the BJP is leading in 79 seats, while the Congress is ahead in 24 seats, pointing toward a decisive mandate in favor of the ruling party.
The National Democratic Alliance (NDA), spearheaded by the BJP, has also secured over 50 per cent of the vote share in the early stages of counting. The counting of Electronic Voting Machines (EVMs) began this morning, and while exit polls had predicted a comfortable victory for the BJP and its allies, a clearer and more comprehensive picture is expected to emerge as the counting progresses further.
As per the Matrize Exit Poll projections, the BJP-led alliance was expected to win between 85 and 95 seats, comfortably above the halfway mark of 64. In contrast, the Congress-led alliance was projected to secure between 25 and 32 seats. Other parties, including independents and the All India United Democratic Front (AIUDF), were estimated to win between six and twelve seats.
A look back at the 2021 Assam Assembly elections highlights the scale of the BJP’s current performance. In 2021, the BJP emerged as the single largest party with 60 seats and a vote share of 33.2 per cent. The NDA coalition, which included the Asom Gana Parishad (AGP) and the United People’s Party Liberal (UPPL), secured a combined vote share of 44.8 per cent. AGP accounted for 7.9 per cent, while UPPL contributed 3.4 per cent.
On the other side, the Mahajot alliance—comprising the Indian National Congress (INC), AIUDF, Bodoland People’s Front (BPF), and CPI(M)—secured a closely competing 43.7 per cent vote share in 2021. The Congress alone garnered 29.7 per cent, while the AIUDF secured 9.3 per cent, making the contest highly competitive at the time.
However, the early trends in the current election suggest that the BJP has significantly widened the gap, consolidating its support base across the state. If these trends hold, it would mark another emphatic victory for the BJP in Assam, reinforcing its political dominance in the northeastern state.
As counting continues, all eyes remain on whether the BJP-led NDA will not only maintain its lead but surpass exit poll predictions, while the Congress-led alliance looks to improve its standing as more results come in.
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