Share market as well as the common man was shocked to see the election results. Both failed to consider the facts. A recent incident will make one understand. Few weeks ago I visited the house of a close friend. I was offered sweets as their daughter passed the exam. I was surprised not to hear about the son who scored very high marks in 12th board. I enquired with my friend. He said with anger,” the foolish fellow missed the merit list!”. The passing in exam for the daughter who was expected to fail, became a cause for celebration and not being in merit list, despite scoring higher marks was being treated as a failure. The present analysis of election by political pundits is no different.
Why getting 240 seats BJP is not a bad performance when NDA has won clear majority?
in last 77 years 10 times prime ministers headed the government despite not having majority as a single party. Alliances were made before as well as after the elections. Thrice they managed to complete the full term. During these three term the largest party did not has 240 seats. Most of the Indian states have given majority verdict. Winning three new state election will add more seats in Rajya Sabha which will help in managing parliament better.
Despite these results there are issues which may worry both I.N.D.I.A and NDA.
This election provided opportunity to both alliances and both failed miserably.
The opposition was very close to dislodge BJP but failed miserably. Mahagathbandhan of Janta Dal, Rashtriya Janta Dal, leftist parties and Congress in 2015 could win a clear majority in Bihar. Prashant Kishore discovered the magic formula of consolidation of the divided votes of the opposition then why a bigger alliance of 37 parties failed to get the desired result.
1. Lack of emotional intelligence: The thirty-seven-party alliance failed to respect the differences and failed to accept a single leader to guide the alliance. Nitish Kumar who brought major parties on board was challenged and he opted to leave it. This single mistake changed the outcome. Nitish Kumar on one hand and 20 seats in Karnataka could have done the magic. Post election the alliance approached Nitish but now it is too little too late.
2. Failure to accommodate partners in seat sharing arrangement: This election was unique in one aspect. The alliance partners were fighting among themselves in states where one regional party was too strong and refused to share seats. In West Bengal Trina Mool Congress, congress and others were fighting a fierce battle. In Punjab Congress and AAP, in Kerala left and congress were doing the same. This led to a panicked Rahul Gandhi filing nomination from Rae Bareli.
3. Failure to repeat performance in Karnataka: despite winning the state election Congress failed to stop the alliance of BJP and Janta Dal from winning 17 and 2 seats respectively. Results of Karnataka destroyed the hopes of I.N.D.I. alliance. Selection of candidates was so dynastic that the superlative freebies failed to lure the voters. People who are seeking resignation of Modi have failed to appreciate the magic which turned the tables within one year of losing state elections.
4. Congress leadership is weak and self-centered, not worried about its state leaders: Congress decided to fight against Trinamool Congress in west Bengal. Trinamool congress was ruthlessly brutal to congress workers. 5-time MP Adhir Ranjan Chowdhury remained a staunch protector of the Congress' interests in the state, became the strongest critic of Chief Minister Mamata Banerjee's party. Instead of supporting the grass root workers, the top leadership surrendered meekly and party president said, "Mamata Banerjee is with the alliance. She has recently said that she will join the government. Adhir Ranjan Chowdhury will not take the decision. The decision will be taken by me and the high command and those who don't agree will go out,". The dictatorial move demoralised the party workers, Adhir Ranjan lost his seat and Trinamool which was feeling heat till then did exceedingly well. Not having a seat sharing agreement, opting to fight against the alliance partner, then not allowing the candidates to attack is difficult to understand.
Bharat has a tradition of losing a won battle.
First time it happened during Mahabharat. Duryodhana was counting his last breath, Karna was dead and so were the other warriors. Pandavas left the battlefield to inform Dhritarashhtra about winning the war!
Why it was important? How he mattered so much that they could not wait till next morning?
The dying Duryodhana appointed Ashwatthama his general and told him to avenge the killing of his father Dronacharya. Ashwatthama attacked the sleeping army of the Pandavas and slaughtered major warriors including five sons of Draupadi.
After the night of slaughter, the driver of Dhrishtadyumna's chariot, informed Yudhishthira of the devastating attack on his camp. Yudhishthira fell into deep grief upon learning of the death of his sons and allies, and lamented over the tragedy of defeating his foes only to be defeated in the end. He acknowledged that heedlessness was the cause of their downfall and that prosperity abandons the heedless. Chankya Neeti is full of such wisdom yet Bharat has failed to learn this lesson! Many Kings lost wars due to this complacency. Failing to control ‘direct action day killing’ led to partition of India.
What went wrong with BJP.
BJP started the election campaign in a celebratory mood. Abki Baar 400 par became a conclusion. Media started inventing reasons to justify. It is a fact acknowledged globally that India has done well under the leadership of Mr Modi. In election the voting is done by people and most of these live in villages. One to one communication is the key. Rallies and road shows matter to create hype but door to door campaign and bringing the voter to polling booth is what translate the hype into the votes. This was the strength which brought success in 2014 and 2019. With jubilation set in early, this became a casualty. Many candidates as well as booth managers became complacent and loyal voters also opted to enjoy holiday.
“Ayodhya Shocker: How BJP MP Lallu Singh’s Constitution Remark Speeded Up the Countdown to His Loss. TV18 news. JUNE 06, 2024.
1.Lessons learnt in state elections forgotten in some states.
The elections for the states of Rajasthan, Madhya Pradesh and Chhattisgarh were tough and the party made a good strategy. Weak candidates were eliminated, factions were controlled, MPs and ministers were made to contest the assembly election. Shivraj Singh took to ‘Padyatra’ in MP, in Chhattisgadh victims of political violence were made candidates. As a result, the impact created by star campaigners was converted to votes by the ground forces. This time also where these steps were implemented sincerely, results are phenomenal. Madhya Pradesh, Gujrat, Chhattis Garh, Uttrakhand, Delhi, Himachal, Karnataka, Odisha and Arunachal are the proof.
2. Debacle in Maharashtra and U.P.
Bringing Ajit Pawar twice was a grave mistake. The corruption charges levelled against him were multiplied by his alleged involvement in manipulating the Pune Road accident by the alleged drunk minor. To save their TRP, pro NDA channel also condemned the manipulations. Sharad Pawar exploited the martyr image to win difficult seats.
In UP Padam Vibhushan to Mulayam Singh did not go well, Ram Bhakt were shocked to see the honouring of the person who ordered firing on helpless ‘kar sewaks’. Akhilesh Yadav demanded Bharat ratan. These awards never deliver votes. UPA bestowed Bharat Ratan to Sachin Tendulkar yet it did not get votes from young voters. Even Sachin did not give any cognizance to this political move as he rarely attended parliament despite being the Rajya Sabha MP.
Modi came to power riding the wave of Hindutva and international media has always labelled him as a leader promoting the same. By promoting Mulayam now and Sharad Pawar earlier did Modi wanted to project himself diffrent?
Many known Hindu spiritual ‘katha Vachak’ started doing Maula, Maula in their discourses. Why PFI threat, love jihad etc were not highlighted there? Did anti-India forces succeeded in creating substitute of Zakir Nayak?
Why did the leadership failed to learn from the role played by Sharad Pawar in sabotaging the mandate given to BJP in Maharashtra state elections. Do Sharad Pawar and Mulayam qualify as honest, nationalist leaders fitting in BJP agenda? These moves empowered the opponents.
In the first two rounds leadership could see the failure of this plan and changed the strategy half way but damage was done. U.P suffered the most as the Mafia eliminated by Yogi Aditya Nath were from a particular section and Akhilesh Yadav mourned the killings and gave ticket to their family members. PM Modi criticized Samajwadi party for indulging in communal politics in his rallies. Was not this an act of casting an aspersion on Padma Vibhushan given to the leader of the same party.
These moves were exploited by Kejriwal when he spread the rumour about change of yogi Aditya Nath after election.
3. Tamil Nadu: breaking the alliance did not auger well.
Annamalai did the hard work, vote percentage increased to double digit first time. BJP did reach the second position in few places. The fact is both congress and DMK won despite decrease in vote share while AIIDMK and BJP failed to open account despite having higher combined votes in 13 constituencies. This is a new insight observed post-election and needs further exploration.
4. Chasing Rahul Gandhi is counter-productive.
Rahul and congress did not matter in national politics, Mamta Banerjee correctly evaluated the situation when she refused to enter in seat sharing alliance with congress. Post loss in Amethi he should not have given cognizance. Daily comments by the Prime Minister provided him visibility. At best someone like Tejasvi Surya or Anna Malai could have been made to respond to charges levelled by Rahul Gandhi. Had the national herald case pursued better, the parliament would have been more peaceful and less funny.
Silverlining in despair!
Despite reckless blaming of Hindus on social media for not supporting BJP in UP and Maharashtra, the fact remains that these voters have ensured corrupt politicians do not get the power to rule Bharat. The nationalist forces should thank the Indian public for providing an opportunity to continue the mission ‘na khaunga na khane dunga”. Coalition politics may not allow few hard decisions to be implemented but “sabka sath sabka vikas’ and “India against corruption” has A bright future.
Challenges ahead.
Modi government has managed U.S president JOE Biden and Putin well. Bigger challenges are posed now:
• Managing the aspirations of Chandra Babu Naidu and Nitish Kumar. BJP bargained hard with Chandra Babu and took 6 and 10 seats for parliament and state assembly, now it is time to repay. Nitish has his own track record which may keep the leadership on toes.
• Persuading the independent Member of parliaments to join NDA. It will help in having a stable government. It will also keep a check on the aspirations of PMs in waiting.
• Maharashtra debacle has increased the probability of merger of both Shiv senas on one hand and Uddhav joining back NDA on the other. The later option becomes important as Uddhav Thakre has little future prospects in competing with likes of Sharad Pawar, Rahul Gandhi, Mamta, Akhilesh and Stalin while his father enjoyed the status of senior partner in NDA. He had learnt it first hand while heading the government in Maharshtra. It will be a war of wits between Sharad Pawar and BJP think tank. Out spoken Sanjay Raut is a spoil sport.
• Trinamool congress has decimated left parties by out smarting these in violent booth capturing, intimidation and corruption. West Bengal high court has taken cognizance on numerous occasions. Attack on ED official and protection of the guilty by the state machinery, tantamount to challenging the sovereignty of the nation. An allegedly weak prime minister Manmohan Singh invoked article 356 to dismiss government in Goa, Nagaland and Meghalaya. The Yaksh Parshan (probing question) of using article 356 or not using it, will keep haunting the Prime Minister.
Conclusion.
Lady luck has provided a golden opportunity to NDA partners, if Nitish works in harmony last of the BIMARU states Bihar may drop this tag. ChandraBabu Naidu can recreate his magic of creating an IT hub in Hyderabad which he lost to Telangana. He initiated an ambitious project for Andhra in his last regime. Modi will translate the vision of creating third largest economy of the world. Collaboration, Cooperation and empathy will be the key drivers. Henry Mintzberg’s famous quote says it better,
By Rakesh Kumar
“(alliance) Management is, above all, a practice where art, science, and craft meet.”
(The content of this article reflects the views of writers and contributors, not necessarily those of the publisher and editor. All disputes are subject to the exclusive jurisdiction of competent courts and forums in Delhi/New Delhi only)
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