A stark warning from one of America’s most influential foreign policy institutions has cast a long shadow over South Asia. The Council on Foreign Relations (CFR), in a recent analytical report, has posited that a “war” could break out between nuclear-armed neighbors India and Pakistan as soon as 2026. The primary catalyst, according to the think tank’s survey of U.S. foreign policy experts, is the perennial and escalating threat of “rising terrorist activities” emanating from Pakistani soil.
This alarming assessment does not emerge in a vacuum. It follows a period of intense military confrontation earlier this year, a conflict that serves as a chilling blueprint for the future scenario the CFR envisages.
The 2024 Flashpoint: Operation Sindoor and Its Aftermath
In May 2024, long-simmering tensions boiled over. In response to the brutal killing of 26 civilians, predominantly tourists, in Jammu and Kashmir’s Pahalgam by Pakistan-backed terrorists, India launched a decisive military response. Dubbed Operation Sindoor, the strikes targeted key command and control centres of the Jaish-e-Mohammed (JeM) and Lashkar-e-Taiba (LeT)—groups responsible for atrocities like the 2019 Pulwama and 2008 Mumbai attacks. Indian officials reported over 100 terrorist casualties.
Pakistan retaliated over the subsequent three days with attempted strikes on Indian military installations. India’s counter-retaliation escalated to missile and drone attacks, marking a significant intensification in warfare technology along the volatile border. After four days of intense cross-border exchanges, a fragile de-escalation was reached on May 10 following DGMO-level talks.
A Rare Admission: Pakistan Confirms Damage
The conflict’s significance was further underscored by a rare admission from Islamabad. Breaking from a longstanding pattern of denying or minimizing the impact of Indian strikes, Pakistan’s Foreign Minister, Ishaq Dar, confirmed in a press briefing that Indian missile strikes had damaged the strategically important Nur Khan Air Base in Rawalpindi and injured personnel.
"Only one drone damaged a military installation and personnel were also injured in the attack," Dar stated, while claiming the interception of dozens of other drones. This admission lent tangible, public weight to the scale and success of India’s punitive actions, challenging Pakistan’s traditional narrative of military inviolability.
The CFR’s Warning and the Path to 2026
The CFR report analyzes this recent history as a precursor to a potentially more catastrophic confrontation. The think tank suggests that the current trajectory—where a major terrorist attack leads to swift Indian conventional retaliation, followed by Pakistani counter-strikes and further escalation—creates a dangerously predictable cycle. Each iteration risks higher casualties, deeper strikes, and a reduced threshold for restraint.
The report also notably cites that the Trump administration had attempted to mediate the longstanding disputes between New Delhi and Islamabad, implying a perceived vacuum or instability in sustained international diplomatic engagement that could help manage crises.
The Gathering Storm
The ingredients for the CFR’s predicted 2026 scenario are alarmingly present:
Unabated Terror Infrastructure: The continued existence and operation of groups like JeM and LeT from Pakistani territory remains India’s primary security concern.
Established Retaliation Doctrine: India has demonstrated a clear willingness to abandon strategic restraint for a doctrine of punitive, cross-border strikes in response to major terror incidents.
Escalation in Warfare: The use of missiles and drones in the 2024 conflict signifies a technological leap in cross-border engagements, making responses faster, harder to intercept, and more damaging.
Domestic Political Pressures: In both democracies, public opinion following a terrorist attack can severely limit the scope for diplomatic de-escalation.
The CFR’s warning is less a definitive prophecy than a critical red flag. It highlights that the existing framework of ceasefires and post-crisis talks is merely a temporary patch on a deeply fractured relationship. Without credible, verifiable action by Pakistan to dismantle terrorist sanctuaries, and without robust, sustained international diplomacy to address the core issues, the region remains perilously close to a precipice. The events of May 2024 were not an end, but a ominous prologue. The world cannot afford to ignore the forecast of the storm that may follow.
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